Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Mage’s half-bro Baeza graduates

The three U.S. Triple Crown races—the Kentucky Derby (G1), Preakness (G1), and Belmont (G1)—all date back to the 1800s. Through the decades, nine broodmares have achieved the rare feat of foaling two U.S. classic winners.

The latest is Puca. Her 2020 foal, Mage, made headlines with his triumph in the 2023 Kentucky Derby. The following year, Puca’s 2021 foal—Dornoch—prevailed in the 2024 Belmont.

Can Puca make history as the first mare to produce three U.S. classic winners? It’s within the realm of possibility after her 2022 foal, Baeza, broke his maiden in eye-catching fashion at Santa Anita last Friday.

Purchased for $1.2 million a few months after Mage’s Kentucky Derby triumph, Baeza debuted on Dec. 1 in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf at Del Mar. Judging from his ninth-place finish, he didn’t care for grass.

Trainer John Shirreffs then switched Baeza to dirt for a one-mile maiden special weight on Jan. 4 at Santa Anita. The result? Significant improvement. Baeza showed tactical speed tracking fractions of :22.91, :46.33, and 1:10.27 in third place before advancing to finish second behind runaway winner Rodriguez. The latter reached the finish line in the strong time of 1:35.91 and returned to finish second against champion two-year-old male Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis (G3).

Baeza’s runner-up finish against Rodriguez looks even better in retrospect, and it set the stage for his breakthrough win on Friday. Facing five rivals in another one-mile maiden special weight over the Santa Anita dirt, Baeza pressed splits of :22.94 and :46.93 in second place, took over through six furlongs in 1:12.48, and pulled away down the homestretch to win by 4 3/4 lengths in 1:37.84.

That was a fast time on a day when the Santa Anita main track was playing on the slow side. For comparison, three-year-old fillies required 1:39.92 to complete a one-mile maiden special weight, and older California-breds needed 1:39.11 to run a one-mile $20,000 allowance optional claimer.

According to Brad Free of the Daily Racing Form, the April 5 Santa Anita Derby (G1) could be on the agenda for Baeza. With 100-50-25-15-10 Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification points up for grabs, a top-two finish will all but guarantee Baeza a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Becoming Puca’s third classic winner won’t be easy, but the path is clear, and Baeza has already taken several steps down that path.

A few other maiden winners from last week are worth highlighting. At Gulfstream Park, Gosger graduated in a one-mile maiden special weight on Saturday. The stoutly bred son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist dueled for command through fractions of :23.63, :46.16, and 1:11.48 before edging away to win by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:37.54.

That effort marked a nice step forward off Gosger’s runner-up finish in his debut sprinting on Dec. 14. Stretching out in distance clearly suited this Brendan Walsh trainee, and he may improve again when tackling two turns in the future. Perhaps he’ll make his two-turn debut in the March 29 Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream, a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier worth 100-50-25-15-10 points. As with Baeza, a top-two finish is likely all Gosger will need to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

The same goes for Yinzer, who made his fourth start a winning one in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on Saturday at Fair Grounds. The Steve Asmussen trainee opened up a significant lead through fractions of :23.70, :47.92, and 1:11.77 before staying on nicely to score by two lengths in 1:44.49. 

Perhaps we’ll see this son of Twirling Candy join the Road to the Kentucky Derby in the March 22 Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, another prep worth 100-50-25-15-10 points.

Lastly, we’ll mention Retribution, who won his debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Saturday at Fair Grounds. On a day when the rail seemed like the fastest part of the main track, Retribution raced wide throughout, but nevertheless wore down a couple of ground-saving rivals to prevail by 1 1/4 lengths in the respectable time of 1:10.51.

Retribution isn’t currently nominated to the Triple Crown, but perhaps trainer Cherie DeVaux will make the son of Vekoma a late nominee. There’s clearly talent and upside here.

Top maiden winner of the week: Baeza

Honorable mention: Gosger