Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: American Promise

A 7 3/4-length demolition of the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs launched American Promise into the Kentucky Derby (G1) picture.

Racing over a lightning-fast track, American Promise completed 1 1/8 miles in the track-record time of 1:46.41. His pedigree indicates stretching out another furlong in distance for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby won’t be an issue.

American Promise’s sire, Justify, needs no introduction. The brilliant speedster went from an unraced maiden to a Triple Crown winner in less than four months. After splashing through mud to beat a talented field in the Kentucky Derby, Justify added the 1 3/16-mile Preakness (G1) and 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1) to his record.

Justify has since embarked on a stellar stud career. Many of his best runners have starred on turf, including 1 1/2-mile Derby (G1) winner City of Troy, 1 1/4-mile Belmont Oaks (G1) conqueror Aspen Grove, 1 1/4-mile Nassau (G1) victress Opera Singer, one-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) heroine Hard to Justify, and 1,400-meter (about seven-furlong) Prix de la Foret (G1) winner Ramatuelle.

But others have performed at a high level on dirt, including champion two-year-old filly and 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner Just F Y I and seven-furlong Woody Stephens (G1) hero Arabian Lion.

As can be deduced from the above examples, the progeny of Justify have shown talent over a variety of distances. But on the whole they perform well running long, compiling a lofty average winning distance of 7.7 furlongs. That’s indicative of a stallion who passes on stamina more than speed.

The bottom half of American Promise’s pedigree is geared in a similar direction. He’s the third foal produced by Tapella, a daughter of Tapit out of Princess Arabella.

Tapella showed some stamina during her racing career, winning a maiden special weight and an allowance racing one mile at Belmont Park. She passed on her route racing ability to her first foal, Hoosier Philly, a five-time stakes winner who secured her biggest win to date in the 1 1/16-mile Golden Rod (G2).

Tapella’s stamina is owed at least in part to Tapit, a three-time leading North American sire. Winner of the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial (G1) and a participant in the 2004 Kentucky Derby, Tapit regularly passes on stamina, with his progeny winning at an average distance of 7.6 furlongs. He’s famously sired four winners of the Belmont (Tonalist, Creator, Tapwrit, and Essential Quality) as well as Flightline, the undefeated 2022 Horse of the Year who dominated the 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Princess Arabella may have contributed some stamina to Tapella as well. The daughter of 1 1/8-mile Haskell (G1) winner Any Given Saturday went 3-for-3 during her brief racing career, which culminated with an eight-length drubbing of the 1 1/16-mile Sunland Park Oaks. In addition to Tapella, Princess Arabella is the dam of Ulele, runner-up in the 1 1/8-mile Black-Eyed Susan (G2) and 1 1/16-mile Iowa Oaks (G3).

Getting back to Tapit, he’s developing an excellent record as a broodmare sire. Aside from American Promise, his daughters have foaled champion three-year-old male and Belmont winner Arcangelo, Horse of the Year and two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Cody’s Wish, champion three-year-old filly and 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks (G1) conqueror Pretty Mischievous, 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster (G1) victor Kingsbarns, and 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner Saudi Crown.

The presence of Tapit in the bottom half of American Promise’s pedigree may explain why American Promise has turned into one of Justify’s talented dirt racers rather than a grass star. While Tapit has sired talented turf horses, it’s more common for his best runners to shine on dirt.

In any case, the cross of Justify with a Tapit mare creates a pedigree packed with classic stamina. There’s no reason to believe 1 1/4 miles is out of reach for American Promise, and even the 1 1/2-mile journey of the Belmont is a possibility.