Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Flood Zone

Flood Zone made his Road to the Kentucky Derby debut in the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct. Racing a one-turn mile, the bay colt dueled for the lead and pulled clear down the lane to win by 3 1/4 lengths.

The fact Flood Zone relished racing a one-turn mile shouldn’t come as a surprise. His sired, Frosted, famously dominated the 2016 Metropolitan H. (G1) over a one-turn mile at Belmont Park. Frosted won by 14 1/4 lengths in the blazing time of 1:32.73, not far off the North American record of 1:32 1/5 for one mile on dirt.

So does this mean one-turn miles are destined to be Flood Zone’s strong suit, and the Florida-bred colt has no chance to shine racing 1 1/4 miles around two turns in the Kentucky Derby (G1)? Not necessarily.

Frosted was much more than a one-turn specialist. In fact, he achieved the majority of his racing success around two turns. As a three-year-old he finished first in the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial (G1), second in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1), third in the 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1), and fourth in the Kentucky Derby. The following year, after obliterating the Metropolitan, he added the 1 1/8-mile Whitney (G1) to his record.

It’s easy to see where Frosted inherited his prowess as a route racer. His sire, Tapit, is a three-time leading North American sire known for passing on stamina at stud. Four of his sons (Tonalist, Creator, Tapwrit, and Essential Quality) have won the Belmont.

In addition, Frosted’s dam is Fast Cookie, winner of the 1 1/16-mile Cotillion H. (G2). Prior to Frosted, she foaled Indulgent, winner of the one-mile Go for Wand H. (G3).

Now, it’s worth noting Frosted’s stud record indicates he passes on speed more consistently than stamina. His progeny have compiled a sprint-oriented average winning distance of 6.6 furlongs, with the best of them including Carter (G2) winner and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) runner-up Post Time, 1 1/16-mile Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) heroine Travel Column, and 1,200-meter (about six-furlong) Karrakatta Plate (G2) winner Bustling.

But this doesn’t mean Frosted is incapable of siring winners over longer distances. Certainly his son Frosted Over showed stamina when dominating the Dominion Day (G3) and Ontario Derby (G3) racing 1 1/8 miles. And in the case of Flood Zone, the bottom half of his pedigree is packed with classic stamina to counterbalance any speed influence from Frosted.

Flood Zone’s dam is Curls for Girls, a daughter of Curlin out of the unraced Easy Goer mare Montera. Curlin achieved abundant success over classic distances, winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), Dubai World Cup (G1), and two editions of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) over 1 1/4 miles plus the Preakness (G1) racing 1 3/16 miles. For his efforts, he was rewarded with two Horse of the Year titles.

At stud, Curlin has developed into a phenomenal source of classic stamina. His progeny routinely win major two-turn dirt races and have compiled an average winning distance of 7.6 furlongs. The best of them include Preakness winner Exaggerator, Belmont hero Palace Malice, Breeders’ Cup Classic conqueror Vino Rosso, Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) winner Malathaat, Alabama (G1) conqueror Nest, Santa Anita H. (G1) victor Idol, Travers (G1) winner Keen Ice, Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winners Highland Falls and Bright Future, and Woodward H. (G1) hero Global Campaign. All of these horses won at the Grade 1 level over 1 3/16 miles or farther.

Other long-winded sons and daughters of Curlin include the champions Idiomatic, Stellar Wind, and Good Magic. The latter finished second in the 2018 Kentucky Derby against Triple Crown winner Justify.

As for Easy Goer, he won the Belmont, Travers, Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Suburban H. (G1) over distances from 1 1/4 miles to 1 1/2 miles, in addition to placing second in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Breeders’ Cup Classic. At stud, his best runners included four-time Grade 1 winner My Flag—who won over 1 1/4 miles in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1)—and Will’s Way, victorious in the Travers.

With the stamina of Curlin backing up Frosted, there’s reason to believe Flood Zone can handle distances longer than one mile. Even the 1 1/4-mile journey of the Kentucky Derby may prove within reach.