Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: John Hancock

John Hancock joined the Road to the Kentucky Derby with an unwavering performance in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs.

After leading for much of the journey, John Hancock engaged in an intense head-to-head battle with Owen Almighty down the homestretch. Despite racing in tight quarters along the inside, John Hancock repelled Owen Almighty’s challenge to prevail by half a length.

Tenacity can do wonders for a horse’s racing success. But can John Hancock display the same fight racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby (G1)? Or will the longer distance of the Run for the Roses leave John Hancock too leg-weary to ward off challengers?

Perhaps a pedigree analysis can reveal the answer.

John Hancock is a son of Constitution, winner of the Florida Derby (G1) and Donn H. (G1) racing 1 1/8 miles. Constitution faltered in his lone start over 1 1/4 miles, finishing last of six in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), but he was out of form at the time and retired shortly thereafter. We never got to see Constitution tackle 1 1/4 miles when at his best.

Nothing in Constitution’s pedigree suggests 1 1/4 miles would have been an issue. He’s a son of three-time leading North American sire Tapit, a renowned stamina influence best known for siring 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Flightline and 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1) winners Tonalist, Creator, Tapwrit, and Essential Quality.

Constitution’s dam, Baffled, has foaled seven-furlong Superlative (G2) winner Boynton and one-mile Tempted (G3) heroine Jacaranda. Baffled is a daughter of Distorted Humor, the sire of Kentucky Derby and Preakness (G1) winner Funny Cide plus Belmont and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer. Daughters of Distorted Humor have foaled Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Arrogate and Hong Kong sensation Golden Sixty, among others.

Befitting his pedigree, Constitution has proven capable of siring high-profile classic contenders. His son Tiz the Law won the 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1) and a 1 1/8-mile edition of the Belmont before finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. Another son, Catching Freedom, took the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) before running fourth in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness.

Moving on to the bottom half of John Hancock’s pedigree, his dam is Scribbling Sarah, a daughter of Freud who scored her lone victory in a 5 1/2-furlong turf maiden special weight at Saratoga. But despite her relative lack of racing renown, Scribbling Sarah has achieved acclaim as a broodmare. Prior to John Hancock, she foaled Speech, winner of the 1 1/16-mile Ashland (G1).

As for Freud, he’s worth a close look. While he failed to win at the stakes level and went 1-for-12 during his career, his pedigree (by Storm Cat out of Mariah’s Storm) makes him a full-brother to three-time leading North American sire Giant’s Causeway, who won half a dozen Group 1 races over distances up to 1 5/16 miles. Giant’s Causeway consistently passed on his stamina at stud, with 2019 Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar, Belmont runner-up Destin, and Preakness third-place finisher Creative Cause representing only a few of his many talented U.S. runners.

Freud didn’t achieve the same level of stud success as Giant’s Causeway, and his progeny tended to show more speed, winning at an average distance of 6.7 furlongs compared to 8.0 furlongs for the progeny of Giant’s Causeway. But Freud nevertheless enjoyed a productive stallion career, and from time to time his runners scored major wins over classic distances. For example, Fourstarcrook won the 1 1/4-mile Flower Bowl (G1) and Therapist took the 1 3/8-mile United Nations (G1).

As a broodmare sire, Freud is responsible not only for John Hancock and Speech, but for 1 1/16-mile Summertime Oaks (G2) winner Faypien and seven-furlong Churchill Downs (G2) conqueror Catalina Red.

Some bettors may look at the pedigree of John Hancock, notice the fact Constitution, Scribbling Sarah, and Freud all proved best running shorter than 1 1/4 miles, and conclude the Kentucky Derby distance is out of reach. But a deeper analysis suggests there’s a good chance John Hancock will handle 1 1/4 miles without issue.