Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Natural Rise

The Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby has been churning out Kentucky Derby (G1) starters with increasing frequency. And their performances at Churchill Downs have been improving, culminating with Forever Young’s near-miss third in 2024.

Perhaps Natural Rise can continue the ascent of Japanese runners in the Kentucky Derby. He became the first horse to earn points on the 2024-25 Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby when unleashing a nice finishing kick to win the Cattleya S. at Tokyo Racecourse by three-quarters of a length in 1:36.4 for a metric mile, missing the juvenile track record by only 0.2.

A brief glance at Natural Rise’s pedigree might suggest he’s cut out for success on turf rather than dirt. But dig a little deeper, and dirt influences become evident, explaining why Natural Rise has gone 2-for-2 on dirt to open his career.

Natural Rise is a son of Kizuna, who launched a giant late rally to win the 2013 Tokyo Yushun (G1) (Japanese Derby) on turf. That was easily the biggest triumph of Kizuna’s career, but he also performed well during an international excursion to France, beating Epsom’s Derby (G1) winner Ruler of the World and future U.S. champion Flintshire in the Prix Niel (G2) before finishing a respectable fourth in the prestigious Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1).

At stud, Kizuna has passed on his turf prowess to accomplished progeny like two-time Yasuda Kinen (G1) winner Songline and Kyoto Shimbun Hai (G2) hero Deep Bond, a three-time runner-up in the Tenno Sho (Spring) (G1). But Kizuna has also shown the ability to sire quality dirt racers; his son Bathrat Leon has won multiple group stakes on turf, but is perhaps best known for winning the Godolphin Mile (G2) on dirt.

A dive into Kizuna’s lineage explains his ability to sire turf and dirt racers alike. His sire is Deep Impact, the legendary Japanese Triple Crown winner known primarily for siring top-tier turf runners like Japanese Triple Crown winner Contrail, two-time Japan Cup (G1) winner Gentildonna, and Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner Auguste Rodin. But Deep Impact is a son of Kentucky Derby, Preakness (G1), and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Sunday Silence, an elite U.S. dirt racer.

Meanwhile, Kizuna’s dam is Catequil, a daughter of Young America (G1) winner and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up Storm Cat, who developed into a world-renowned sire of elite dirt and turf horses. Prior to Kizuna, Catequil foaled Sunday Break, a quality dirt racer who won the Peter Pan (G2) and placed in the Belmont (G1) and Wood Memorial (G1).

We’ve spent many paragraphs analyzing Kizuna, but let’s not forget, he represents only half of Natural Rise’s pedigree. Natural Rise’s dam, Lady Madonna, offers an even stronger source of dirt ability.

Lady Madonna wasn’t a superstar racehorse, but she won twice on dirt in Japan, both times racing 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles). She, in turn, is a daughter of Distorted Humor, the sire of Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner Funny Cide and Belmont/Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer. As a dam sire (the position he occupies in the pedigree of Natural Rise), Distorted Humor is responsible for elite dirt racers like Breeders’ Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Arrogate, Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) hero Life Is Good, and Grade 1 winners Art Collector, Happy Saver, Elate, Constitution, and Practical Joke, to name a few.

Meanwhile, Lady Madonna’s dam is Dreamwriter, a maiden winner sprinting on turf in Ireland. A daughter of the multiple Grade 1-placed King’s Bishop (G2) winner Tale of the Cat, Dreamwriter was produced by Rebridled Dreams, whose other foals include Blue Grass (G1) winner Carpe Diem, Breeders’ Futurity (G1) hero J. B.’s Thunder, and five-time graded stakes winner Farrell. J. B.’s Thunder achieved his signature win on synthetic, but Carpe Diem and Farrell were both accomplished dirt runners.

Clearly there’s enough dirt breeding in the pedigree of Natural Rise to explain his affinity for the surface. And the Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance shouldn’t be any issue, since Natural Rise’s pedigree is packed with stamina but also some valuable sources of miler speed.

In short, Natural Rise’s pedigree indicates the Kentucky Derby is a viable goal.