Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Publisher

Although Publisher has yet to win a race, he qualified for the Kentucky Derby (G1) via a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and aims to become the first maiden to win the Kentucky Derby since 1933.

Does Publisher have the pedigree to handle the task? At first glance, his breeding appears geared for success racing 1 1/4 miles over the Churchill Downs dirt. But dig a little deeper, and you may reach a different conclusion.

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Publisher is a son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, one of the greatest horses to set foot on a racetrack this century. Classic distances obviously weren’t an issue for the son of 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile; he won the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, 1 3/16-mile Preakness (G1), and 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1) in succession and later added the 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) to his win tally.

American Pharoah has also carved out a successful stud career. His progeny have thrived over a wide variety of distances and surfaces, but it’s worth noting his turf runners tend to handle classic distances better than his dirt racers.

Let’s share some examples. American Pharaoh’s elite grass racers include Riff Rocket, winner of the Australian Derby (G1) racing 2,400 meters (about 1 1/2 miles); Above the Curve, conqueror of the 2,000-meter (about 1 1/4-mile) Prix Saint-Alary (G1); Marketsegmentation, winner of the 1 1/4-mile New York (G1); and Harvey’s Lil Goil, winner of the 1 1/8-mile Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) and third by a neck in the 1 3/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1).

American Pharoah is also the sire of Skygaze, a dominant winner of the 1 1/4-mile Maple Leaf (G3) over the synthetic Tapeta track at Woodbine. But on dirt, American Pharoah’s progeny tend to shine over shorter trips. They include six-furlong Bing Crosby (G1) winner American Theorem, one-mile Beholder Mile (G1) heroine As Time Goes By, and two-time 1,600-meter (about one-mile) February (G1) victor Cafe Pharaoh.

The bottom half of Publisher’s pedigree paints a similar picture.

Publisher’s dam is Indian Pride, whose brief 3-for-4 career yielded a win in the seven-furlong Shine Again S. and a third-place finish in the seven-furlong Raven Run (G2) on dirt. The fact that she starred as a sprinter rather than a classic type isn’t unexpected since she’s a daughter of Proud Citizen out of Ms. Cornstalk, the dam of Canadian champions Biofuel (a two-time graded stakes winner over 1 1/16 miles) and Tu Endie Wei (a five-time stakes-winning sprinter).

Proud Citizen was a capable performer over classic distances, parlaying a win in the 1 1/16-mile Lexington (G2) into a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby and a third in the Preakness. But his progeny win at an average distance of 7.0 furlongs, suggesting their stamina capabilities often max out at 1 1/8 miles or less.

Of course, there are always exceptions. Proud Citizen has sired 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks (G1) winners Believe You Can and Proud Spell, and the latter was a champion three-year-old filly who stretched her speed to win the 1 1/4-mile Alabama (G1). Furthermore, Proud Citizen’s daughter Torre Laguna is the dam of Master Piece, winner of the 1 3/8-mile Red Smith (G2) on turf.

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But as the saying goes, these are the exceptions that prove the rule. Proud Citizen is also the sire of Hembree, winner of the 6 1/2-furlong Joe Hernandez (G2) and six-furlong Nearctic (G2) on turf; Mark Valeski, winner of the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan (G2) and 1 1/16-mile Mineshaft H. (G3) on dirt; and Blended Citizen, winner of three graded stakes over distances of 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles on dirt and synthetic.

And aside from Master Piece, daughters of Proud Citizen have foaled Manny Wah, winner of the six-furlong Phoenix (G2) on dirt; Conclude, conqueror of the 1 1/8-mile Del Mar Derby (G2) and one-mile Del Mar Mile (G2) on grass; and Gimme Da Lute, winner of the 1 1/8-mile Los Alamitos Derby (G2) and 1 1/16-mile Affirmed (G3) on dirt.

Clearly, Publisher has the pedigree to shine over distances up to 1 1/8 miles on both dirt and turf. He might even handle 1 1/4 miles on turf. But racing 1 1/4 miles on dirt? That may stretch the limits of Publisher’s stamina.

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