Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Render Judgment

The 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby (G1) is one of the toughest horse races to win. A combination of speed and stamina is necessary to outrun as many as 19 rivals to the Churchill Downs finish line.

When analyzing the pedigrees of prospective Kentucky Derby contenders, bettors often find themselves asking: “Does this horse have enough stamina to stay 1 1/4 miles?” Less frequently, a different question is asked: “Does this horse have enough speed to compete in a fast-paced 1 1/4-mile race?”

That’s the question bettors must answer when analyzing the chances of Render Judgment, who has recorded top-five finishes in the Blue Grass (G1), Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), Virginia Derby, and Gun Runner S. on the 2024-25 Road to the Kentucky Derby. His pedigree suggests he’ll stay 1 1/4 miles without issue, but does the stretch-running colt have enough speed to win an ultra-competitive race like the Kentucky Derby, or will he get outsprinted early and find himself with too much ground to close?

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Render Judgment is a son of Blame, the champion older male of 2010 after winning the 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), 1 1/8-mile Whitney H. (G1), and 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster H. (G1). Staying power was Blame’s strong suit, and the majority of his graded stakes-winning sons and daughters have followed suit with success as route racers.

Examples include 1 1/8-mile Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) winner Wet Paint, 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby (G1) conqueror Nadal, 2,100-meter (about 1 5/16-mile) Prix de Diane (G1) heroine Senga, and 1 1/8-mile Santa Margarita (G1) winner Fault.

Only on occasion do Blame’s runners prove best as sprinters, and even then, they’re not always one-dimensional speedsters. Marley’s Freedom achieved her signature win in the seven-furlong Ballerina H. (G1), but also stretched out over one mile to nab the Go for Wand H. (G3). March prevailed in the seven-furlong Woody Stephens (G2), but also finished second by a head in the 1 1/8-mile Hollywood Derby (G1).

Turning now to the bottom half of Render Judgment’s pedigree, he’s the first foal produced by the 0-for-4 maiden Barbara Gordon, a daughter of Commissioner.

As a racehorse, Commissioner was all about stamina, which isn’t surprising since he’s a son of 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1) winner and renowned stamina influence A.P. Indy out of Flaming Heart, a two-time stakes-winning route racer and a daughter of Belmont winner Touch Gold. 

Even though Flaming Heart previously foaled six-furlong Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) runner-up Laugh Track, Commissioner didn’t inherit any of that sprinting speed. His five career wins came racing 1 1/8 miles or farther, including triumphs in the 1 1/4-mile Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2), 1 3/16-mile Skip Away (G3), and 1 3/16-mile Pimlico Special (G3). He also finished second by a head in the Belmont.

At stud, Commissioner has passed on stamina to several of his best runners, including 1 3/16-mile Saratoga Oaks (G3) winner Con Lima, 1,600-meter (about one-mile) Saudi Derby (G3) hero Commissioner King, and 1 1/16-mile Rags to Riches S. winner Coach, who participated in the 2021 Kentucky Oaks (G1). However, one daughter of Commissioner—Boardroom—proved best as a sprinter with three graded stakes triumphs over distances from six to seven furlongs.

Getting back to Barbara Gordon, her dam—Waltz With Chester—has also foaled Saturn Boy (a maiden claiming winner racing one mile) and Gold Money (a four-time winner over distances from one mile to 1 1/8 miles). Waltz With Chester’s ability to produce winning route racers isn’t surprising since she’s a half-sister to Basqueian, who nearly swept the Canadian Triple Crown when sandwiching wins in the 1 1/4-mile Queen’s Plate S. and 1 1/2-mile Breeders’ S. around a runner-up finish in the 1 3/16-mile Princes of Wales S.

Waltz With Chester’s sire, Chester House, also brings stamina into the genetic equation. A half-brother to Belmont winner Empire Maker, Chester House stayed 1 1/4 miles to win the Arlington Million (G1) in decisive fashion.

With so many sources of stamina in his pedigree, Render Judgment appears well-suited to tackle any marathon distance offered in North American horse racing—he might even appreciate switching to turf for the two-mile Belmont Gold Cup (G2). But with relatively little speed in his pedigree, facing 19 rivals in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby might be a little too sharp for Render Judgment.