Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: River Thames

River Thames has shown talent against tough competition on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, finishing second by a neck in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and third by three-quarters of a length in the Blue Grass (G1).

So far, River Thames has raced over distances of 1 1/8 miles or less. A review of his pedigree suggests stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for the Kentucky Derby (G1) could be a question mark.

River Thames is a son of Maclean’s Music, who made headlines in 2011 when he dominated a six-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita in the blazing time of 1:07.44. Unfortunately, Maclean’s Music never raced again, but the talent he showed on debut earned him a chance at stud, and he’s made the most of the opportunity.

Indeed, Maclean’s Music has proven to be a productive source of stakes winners. His first crop of foals yielded Cloud Computing, the upset winner of the 2017 Preakness (G1) racing 1 3/16 miles.

But Cloud Computing, with his classic-winning stamina, has proven to be an exception among Maclean’s Music’s progeny. The majority of Maclean’s Music’s runners thrive as sprinter and milers, compiling a strongly speed-oriented average winning distance of 6.2 furlongs. Examples include multiple Grade 1 winner and champion male sprinter Jackie’s Warrior, seven-furlong Woody Stephens (G1) hero Drain the Clock, and one-mile Champagne (G1) winner Complexity.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise given that Maclean’s Music is a half-sibling to 1 1/16-mile Doubledogdare (G3) winner Electric Forest, seven-furlong Lazaro Barrera (G3) conqueror Kentuckian, and 1 1/8-mile Los Alamitos Derby (G3) winner Uncle Chuck, three runners who proved best in sprints and short routes.

Cloud Computing likely inherited stamina from the female side of his pedigree. His dam, Quick Tempo, is a daughter of 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy, winner of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1) and 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) before developing into a renowned stamina influence at stud.

In contrast, River Thames was produced by Proportionality, a daughter of Discreet Cat out of All Mettle. This is a female family geared more toward speed than stamina.

Proportionality won three races during a lengthy career, all sprinting between five and six furlongs. That’s not surprising since All Mettle is also the dam of Miss Interpret, who scored her biggest win in the seven-furlong (off-the-turf) P. G. Johnson S.

Another source of Proportionality’s speed is her sire, Discreet Cat, a talented middle-distance runner best known for winning the one-mile Cigar Mile H. (G1) at Aqueduct in a blazing 1:32.46.

Discreet Cat did stretch out to win the UAE Derby (G2) racing 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles), but at stud he’s developed into a source of speed, with his progeny winning at an average distance of 6.5 furlongs. Dig into their racing records, and it’s apparent they thrive racing 1 1/8 miles or less. Examples include:

• Discreet Marq, winner of the 1 1/8-mile Del Mar Oaks (G1).
• Secret Spice, heroine of the one-mile Beholder Mile (G1).
• Secret Compass, winner of the 1 1/16-mile Chandelier (G1).
• Dads Caps, a two-time winner of the seven-furlong Carter H. (G1).
• Discreet Dancer, winner of the one-mile Gulfstream Park H. (G2) and third in the Carter.
• Mamma Kimbo, winner of the 1 1/16-mile Fantasy (G2).
• Sage Valley, triumphant in the seven-furlong James Marvin (G3) and six-furlong Maryland Sprint H. (G3).
• Obamburumai, winner of the 1,600-meter (about one-mile) Arlington Cup (G3) in Japan and the lucrative Golden Eagle going 1,500 meters in Australia.
• Air Khalifa, winner of the Negishi (G3) sprinting 1,400 meters (about seven furlongs) in Japan.
• Out of Bounds, hero of the one-mile Sham (G3).
• Debt Ceiling, winner of the six-furlong Bashford Manor (G3).

Meanwhile, daughters of Discreet Cat have foaled Sweet Melania, winner of three graded turf stakes over distances from one mile to 1 1/8 miles; Kitten’s Cat, winner of the one-mile Kitten’s Joy S. and the about 6 1/2-furlong Juvenile Turf Sprint S.; and Discreet Lover, who capitalized on a blazing pace to rally and win the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1).

It should be noted that the sire of Discreet Lover, Repent, finished second by half a length in the 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1), so he may have contributed more stamina to Discreet Lover’s pedigree than Discreet Cat.

In short, the cross of Maclean’s Music with the Discreet Cat mare Proportionality seems likely to leave River Thames at his best as a sprinter or miler. Distances up to 1 1/8 miles are apparently within reach, but he’ll have to outrun his pedigree to negotiate 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby.