Kentucky Derby preps: How productive is the Blue Grass?

During the 20th century, the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland was a preeminent steppingstone to the Kentucky Derby (G1).

From the 1960s through the 1990s, 15 out of 40 (38%) Kentucky Derby winners started in the Blue Grass. But that percentage has declined precipitously to 1 out of 25 (4%) since 2000.

Performance of Louisiana Derby alumni in the Kentucky Derby, by decade

Pre-Keeneland history

A race called the Blue Grass was held at the defunct Kentucky Association racetrack a dozen times between 1911 and 1926. It produced four Kentucky Derby winners: Meridian (1911), Donerail (1913), Behave Yourself (1921), and Bubbling Over (1926).

However, we’ll focus our statistical analysis on Keeneland’s iteration of the Blue Grass, which debuted in 1937.

Early success in the 1940s and 1950s

Keeneland’s Blue Grass quickly turned out a pair of Kentucky Derby winners. Whirlaway (1941) parlayed a runner-up Blue Grass finish into Derby glory, and Shut Out (1942) won both races.

All told, 21% of Blue Grass alumni in the Kentucky Derby recorded top-three finishes during the 1940s.

That percentage fell to 13% during the 1950s, when only one Blue Grass starter (Tomy Lee, 1959) managed to win the Kentucky Derby. But Tomy Lee’s triumph foreshadowed an unprecedented decade to follow.

Otherworldly success in the 1960s

In the 1960s, the Blue Grass produced 32 Kentucky Derby starters. Six of them—Decidedly (1962), Chateaugay (1963), Northern Dancer (1964), Lucky Debonair (1965), Proud Clarion (1967), and Forward Pass (1968)—won the Run for the Roses. Seven others finished in the top three.

The 32 Blue Grass representatives achieved a 19% win rate and a spectacular 41% in-the-money rate in the Kentucky Derby.

During the 1960s, the Blue Grass was contested only nine days before the Kentucky Derby. Its close proximity to the first Saturday in May meant horses exiting other high-profile Kentucky Derby preps—like the Santa Anita Derby and Florida Derby—could use the Blue Grass as a final sharpener for the Kentucky Derby.

Number of Blue Grass alumni winning the Kentucky Derby, by decade

Continued prominence through the 1990s

The Blue Grass kept churning out Kentucky Derby winners on a regular basis through the end of the 20th century.

In the 1970s, Blue Grass alumni Dust Commander (1970), Riva Ridge (1972), and Spectacular Bid (1979) all won the Kentucky Derby while five others finished in the top three, equating to a 7% win rate and a 17% in-the-money rate.

Those metrics held more or less steady at 6% and 17% during the 1980s, when Blue Grass starters Gato Del Sol (1982) and Alysheba (1987) won the Run for the Roses.

In 1989, the Blue Grass shifted to three weeks out from the Kentucky Derby, and the 1990s became the most productive decade since the 1960s. Four Blue Grass veterans—Unbridled (1990), Strike the Gold (1991), Sea Hero (1993), and Thunder Gulch (1995)—won the Kentucky Derby, an 11% win rate. The in-the-money rate was 27%.

The dry spell of the 2000s and 2010s

The Blue Grass momentum stalled in the 2000s. Although 43 Blue Grass participants started in the Kentucky Derby, only one—Street Sense (2007)—took first prize. The win percentage dropped to 2% and the in-the-money rated dipped to 14%, the lowest numbers since the 1950s.

From 2007 through 2014, the Blue Grass was contested over a synthetic Polytrack surface rather than dirt. The surface change made the Blue Grass less appealing as a Kentucky Derby prep, and in the 2010s, the Blue Grass failed to produce a single Derby winner. Only three Blue Grass starters recorded top-three finishes in the Derby, so the in-the-money rate dipped below 10% (to 9%) for the first time.

Keeneland returned to dirt in 2015, the same year the Blue Grass shifted to four weeks out from the Kentucky Derby. But in 2017 the Blue Grass was downgraded from Grade 1 to Grade 2 status.

With horses racing less often than they did in the past, shifting the date of the Blue Grass—first in 1989 and again in 2015—was prudent. But it’s arguably affected the race’s productivity. Unlike in the 1960s, the Blue Grass must compete directly with races like the Santa Anita Derby and Florida Derby to draw the best Kentucky Derby contenders.

Quiet rebound in the 2020s

Despite its challenges, the Blue Grass is slowly regaining lost prominence. So far in the 2020s, the Blue Grass has produced 17 Kentucky Derby starters, of which four (24%) have finished in the top three. That’s the third-best in-the-money rate of any decade since the Blue Grass made its Keeneland debut.

The Blue Grass hasn’t yielded a Kentucky Derby winner in the 2020s, but 2024 Blue Grass conqueror Sierra Leone was beaten only a nose when second in the Derby. Regaining Grade 1 status in 2022 is doubtlessly helping the Blue Grass rebound.

The Blue Grass is unlikely to ever recapture its spectacular productivity from the 1960s. But the rising in-the-money rate of the 2020s suggests the Blue Grass will produce its next Kentucky Derby winner in the near future.