Kentucky Derby preps: How productive is the Fountain of Youth?

During the second half of the 20th century, the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park emerged as a pivotal Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race.

Between 1960 and 1999, 11 out of 40 Kentucky Derby winners (28%) started in the Fountain of Youth. But that momentum has stalled in the 21st century. Since 2000, only two out of 25 Kentucky Derby winners (8%) have prepped in the Fountain of Youth, a 71% decrease in productivity.

Fountain of Youth alumni in the Kentucky Derby, by decade

A quiet beginning

The Fountain of Youth was inaugurated in 1945. The distance changed regularly in its early years, and it wasn’t contested in 1946, 1948, or 1952. But starting in 1953 it became an annual race held over 1 1/16 miles, the configuration it has maintained for the vast majority of its history.

It’s unknown how many Kentucky Derby starters the Fountain of Youth produced prior to 1980. But the first Fountain of Youth alumnus to win the Kentucky Derby was Tim Tam in 1958. Tim Tam swept both races and cemented the Fountain of Youth as a viable steppingstone to the first Saturday in May.

Resounding success from the 1960s through the 1990s

Beginning in the 1960s, the Fountain of Youth staked its position among the leading Kentucky Derby prep races.

In the 1960s, three Fountain of Youth alumni visited the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle: Carry Back (1961), Kauai King (1966), and Forward Pass (1968). The 1970s matched this success rate with Dust Commander (1970), Cannonade (1974), and Spectacular Bird (1979) using the Fountain of Youth as a springboard to Kentucky Derby glory.

During the 1980s, the Fountain of Youth turned out 24 Kentucky Derby starters. Seven of them—a lofty 29%—finished in the top three, led by the victorious duo of Pleasant Colony (1981) and Swale (1984).

The momentum continued in the 1990s. Six out of 26 (23%) Fountain of Youth alumni in the Kentucky Derby cracked the trifecta, including three who won the Derby: Unbridled (1990), Go for Gin (1994), and Thunder Gulch (1995).

Dry spell in the 2000s

Bolstered by its success in the 1980s and 1990s, the Fountain of Youth achieved Grade 1 status in 1999 and held it through 2004. Nevertheless, the Fountain of Youth entered an unprecedented dry spell during the 2000s.

The race remained as capable as ever at producing Kentucky Derby starters, churning out 24 between 2000 and 2009. But not one of those two-dozen horses managed to crack the Kentucky Derby trifecta.

Few of the Fountain of Youth alumni were even remotely competitive in the Derby, with 19 of the 24 finishing 10th or worse.

One contributing factor may have been a change in the configuration of the Fountain of Youth. The race was lengthened from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/18 miles in 2005, possibly making it less appealing as a Kentucky Derby steppingstone.

Partial rebound in the 2010s

A new decade brought new momentum for the Fountain of Youth. In 2010, Ice Box bounced back from a fifth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth to finish second in the Kentucky Derby.

Shortly thereafter, two changes solidified the return of the Fountain of Youth to prominence. In 2011, the purse climbed to a record $400,000. And in 2012, the race returned to 1 1/16 miles.

This combination proved effective. In 2013, Orb became the first horse since Thunder Gulch in 1995 to complete the Fountain of Youth/Kentucky Derby double. Then in 2018 and 2019, Fountain of Youth participants Good Magic and Code of Honor recorded back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Kentucky Derby.

The Fountain of Youth ended the 2010s with one win and three seconds from 22 Kentucky Derby starters. It was a huge improvement from the 2000s, though the win rate (5%) and in-the-money rate (18%) were both down from the 1980s and 1990s.

Number of Fountain of Youth alumni winning the Kentucky Derby, by decade

Decreased Kentucky Derby starters in the 2020s

The 2020s have yielded mixed results from the Fountain of Youth. From 2020 through 20204, the race yielded only five Kentucky Derby starters, putting it on pace for 10 starters by the end of the decade—a 55% decrease from the 2010s and a 62% decrease from the high of the 1990s. Only one of the five has finished in the Kentucky Derby trifecta: Mage, the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner.

So far, Fountain of Youth starters in the Kentucky Derby have achieved a 20% in-the-money rate in the 2020s, down from 23% in the 1990s and 29% in the 1980s.

What does the future hold?

As Mage illustrated in 2023, the Fountain of Youth can still produce Kentucky Derby winners on occasion. But the decreasing number of Fountain of Youth alumni competing in the Kentucky Derby could make it difficult for the race to regain its reputation as a top-tier Derby prep.