Kentucky Derby preps: How productive is the Risen Star?

Once upon a time, the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds was a minor step on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Now it ranks among the most pivotal qualifiers.

The first 29 years of Risen Star history elapsed without the race producing a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner. But in 2002, Risen Star alumnus War Emblem changed the narrative with a Run for Roses triumph.

Since then, Risen Star alumni in the Kentucky Derby have consistently managed a 4-6% win rate, and their in-the-money rate has climbed nearly sixfold from 6% to 35%.

Risen Star alumni in the Kentucky Derby, by decade

Slow start in the 20th century

The Risen Star debuted in 1973 under the name Louisiana Derby Trial. It’s uncertain how many Kentucky Derby starters and top-three finishers the race produced during the 1970s. None prevailed in the Run for the Roses, though 1977 Louisiana Derby Trial winner Run Dusty Run finished second in the Kentucky Derby to eventual Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.

The 1980s proved similarly quiet. Only three Louisiana Derby Trial starters went on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. The best was, unsurprisingly, a colt named Risen Star, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby before going on to win the Preakness (G1) and Belmont (G1). In 1989, the Louisiana Derby Trial was renamed in his honor.

In the 1990s, the purse of the Risen Star climbed gradually from $25,000 at the start of the decade to $125,000 by 1998. Partly as a result, the race managed to produce nine Kentucky Derby starters, 300% more than the previous decade. The most successful was Tejano Run, who rebounded from a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star to run second in the 1995 Kentucky Derby.

War Emblem records a breakthrough win

In 2002, the Risen Star achieved Grade 3 status for the first time. Simultaneously, the purse increased to $150,000.

Finishing sixth in the 2002 Risen Star was a 38-1 longshot named War Emblem. Less than three months later, he posted a gate-to-wire victory in the Kentucky Derby, becoming the first Risen Star starter to win the Run for the Roses.

As the decade went on, the Risen Star purse increased to as much as $300,000, raising its profile as a Kentucky Derby prep.

All told, 16 Risen Star alumni tackled the Kentucky Derby during the 2000s. But only War Emblem finished in the top three. Although the race was gaining prominence as a steppingstone to the Kentucky Derby, the percentage of Risen Star starters cracking the Derby trifecta dropped from 11% in the 1990s to 6% in the 2000s.

In-the-money rate triples in the 2010s

The Risen Star celebrated the arrival of the 2010s by achieving Grade 2 status. Then in 2013, the purse climbed to $400,000.

These two factors helped the Risen Star explode in productivity. In the 2010s, the race churned out 28 Kentucky Derby starters. Five managed to finish in the top three: Country House (first in 2019), Golden Soul (second in 2013), Commanding Curve (second in 2014), Mucho Macho Man (third in 2011), and Gun Runner (third in 2016).

To put it another way, 18% of Risen Star alumni cracked the Kentucky Derby trifecta, tripling the same metric from 2000s.

Decade-by-decade look at the AVERAGE number of Risen Star starters competing in the Kentucky Derby each year 

Momentum continues building in the 2020s

In 2020, the Risen Star lengthened from its longtime distance of 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles. Whether connected or not, the change has coincided with an era of abundance for the Risen Star.

The first five years of the 2020s have seen the Risen Star churn out 20 Kentucky Derby starters, averaging four per year. Seven of them—an incredible 35%—have finished in the money, led by 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Mandaloun. The group also contains runners-up Sierra Leone (2024), Two Phil’s (2023), and Epicenter (2022), as well as third-place finishers Angel of Empire (2023), Zandon (2022), and Mr. Big News (2020).

That 35% in-the-money rate is nearly double the 18% tally from the 2010s.