Kentucky Derby Roundup: Citizen Bull tops the leaderboard

Our Kentucky Derby Roundup series is kicking off exactly 180 days out from the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs.

With the 2024 Breeders’ Cup in the history books, the 2024-25 Road to the Kentucky Derby is taking center stage. Catch up on the latest developments with our weekly roundup of news and notes.

Citizen Bull wires the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

The most accomplished two-year-old dirt racers in North America squared off in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar last Friday. The 1 1/16-mile race drew every Grade 1 winner in the division, all vying for the 30-15-9-6-3 Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification points awarded to the top five finishers.

The complexion of the race changed dramatically at the start. The previously undefeated favorite East Avenue was expected to vie for early supremacy after leading from start to finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), but instead he stumbled badly at the start and raced near the back of the pack throughout, finishing ninth.

In the meantime, American Pharoah (G1) winner Citizen Bull inherited an easy lead and never looked back. Setting fractions of :23.44, :47.89, and 1:12.21 while pressed only lightly by Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Gaming left Citizen Bull with plenty left to kick on and win by 1 1/2 lengths in the snappy time of 1:43.07. He’ll seek to become the third son of Into Mischief to win the Kentucky Derby following Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021).

Gaming, making his route debut off a two-month layoff, pulled 3 1/4 lengths clear of European raider Hill Road and American Pharoah runner-up Getaway Car. The top two finishers are conditioned by six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, and they exit the Juvenile as the top two names on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 40 points and 15 points, respectively.

In addition to East Avenue, a few other well-regarded Kentucky Derby contenders faltered in the Juvenile. Breeders’ Futurity and Hopeful (G1) runner-up Ferocious ran into traffic on both turns and was racing last in midstretch before passing a few rivals late to finish fifth by 6 1/2 lengths. With a better trip, he might have fared better.

In contrast, Hopeful and Champagne (G1) winner Chancer McPatrick received a clean (albeit somewhat wide) trip and simply never fired while finishing sixth by 6 1/2 lengths. The modest pace didn’t help the chances of this stretch-running colt, but it’s also possible he struggled while racing around two turns for the first time.

The same possibility exists for Jonathan’s Way, the previously unbeaten Iroquois (G3) winner who raced midfield before fading to finish seventh by seven lengths in the Juvenile. The son of sprinter/miler Vekoma opened his career with back-to-back wins around one turn and may ultimately prove best racing one mile or less.

“All Other Colts and Geldings” favored in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 wrapped up shortly before the running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. As expected, bettors flocked to support the “All Other Colts and Geldings Foaled in 2022” option, establishing it as the 4-5 favorite among 40 betting interests.

The top three individual choices were Chancer McPatrick (9-1), East Avenue (11-1), and Jonathan’s Way (19-1), reflecting the fact betting closed before the running of the Juvenile. Citizen Bull was allowed to close at 29-1, a few ticks higher than Gaming (26-1).

And which horse closed at the longest odds? None other than Hill Road, the Juvenile third-place finisher. Bettors who backed the son of Quality Road locked in odds of 276-1, an enticing price given his respectable showing in the Juvenile.

Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard top five

1. Citizen Bull (40 points)
2. Gaming (15 points)
3. Getaway Car (11 points)
4. Chancer McPatrick (10 points)
5. East Avenue (10 points)

European-Middle East Road to the Kentucky Derby top five

1. Hotazhell (20 points)
2. Wimbledon Hawkeye (13 points)
3. Camille Pissarro (10 points)
4. Rashabar (5 points)
5. Delacroix (5 points)