Scully, Hanson offer selections for KDFW Pool 3

Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) will open its three-day run Friday at noon (ET), providing the opportunity to wager on 39 individual interests and the pari-mutuel field of “All Other Three-Year-Olds” for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 3. 

Listed as #40, “All Others Three-Year-Olds” is expected to lead the betting, tabbed as the 5-2 morning line favorite on Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia’s morning line. 

TwinSpires analysts James Scully and Vance Hanson offer their picks below, as well as a joint selection.

SCULLY: Trainer Bob Baffert has repeatedly spoken of how he expects the offspring of Authentic, who won the Kentucky Derby in the fall of 2020, to improve with experience, and #32 Rodriguez (20-1) looks poised to make a significant impact if he keeps advancing upon an eye-catching maiden triumph at Santa Anita. The Baffert trainee opened his racing career in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint, recording a respectable second to smart debut winner Romanesque, who came back to finish second to Barnes in the San Vicente (G2), and Rodriguez delivered a more professional effort when stretching to two turns on Jan. 4, registering a 97 Brisnet Speed rating for his seven-length maiden win. He comfortably showed the way on a fast pace, began edging away from the competition on the far turn, and drew off spectacularly through the stretch, stamping himself as an exciting talent. His pedigree features an excellent mix of speed and stamina, as Rodriguez hails from a Cherokee Run mare and counts Belmont (G1) winner Touch Gold, Travers (G1) winner Forty Niner, and Kentucky Derby winner Sunny’s Halo as second-through-fourth maternal broodmare sires. I will play Rodriguez at long odds in advance of his stakes debut.

HANSON: Can a son of Into Mischief win the Kentucky Derby for a third time in six years? Many who figure “yes” will opt for Barnes or Citizen Bull in this pool, but I’ll instead be taking a more attractive price on #29 Patch Adams (20-1). Although third on debut as an odds-on choice going six furlongs at Keeneland in October, Patch Adams justified similarly skimpy odds in his follow-up at Churchill Downs, recording a 10-length maiden triumph when stretching out to seven furlongs while narrowly missing the track record. His 102 Brisnet Speed rating for that effort was strong.

Trained by Brad Cox, Patch Adams has reportedly been working in company with an older multiple Grade 2-winning stablemate, Hit Show, and working well. He is expected to make his two-turn debut in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn on Jan. 25, and is worth investing in now in the event a strong performance in the Southwest attracts a fuller bandwagon.

JOINT SELECTION: #12 East Avenue (15-1) impressed in his first two starts, making all the running and recording an eight-length maiden win sprinting and a five-length romp in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), while registering an encouraging 95 Brisnet Speed rating when stretching to two turns for the latter. The well-built son of Medaglia d’Oro was bet down to 9-5 favoritism in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but East Avenue lost all chance when stumbling badly out of the starting gate at Del Mar, with the jockey protecting his mount after he nearly fell on his face. Trainer Brendan Walsh will look to regroup this year, and East Avenue returned to the work tab at Fair Grounds in early January. He’s eligible to return with a strong showing in the Risen Star (G2) on Feb. 15, and we will look to lock in decent value before East Avenue’s odds drop in future KDFW pools.