Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem for April 24, 2025

A good Thursday morning to you all! Hope everyone's week is going well as we get closer to the big festivities of Kentucky Derby week. Opening night at Churchill is coming up on Saturday and having had the pleasure of attending an opening night there a few years ago, I highly recommend going if you’re going to be in the area. Racing under the lights is always more fun in my opinion and that night is no exception.  

One of my favorite things each year with the Kentucky Derby is to try and decide which horse will be the "wise guy’"horse. I feel like that term can have different definitions for different people, but to me a wise guy horse is the horse who a lot of people seem to be touting, whose odds are probably a little lower than they should be. Usually this horse resides in the 12-1 to 15-1 range. Last year, I felt Saratoga West kind of became this horse but that very well could have been because of the story of Larry Demeritte getting so much publicity as much as he was a wise guy horse. Narrative money can sometimes be even stronger than wise guy money when it comes to the Derby because there’s just so many more people betting the race than a normal race. 

My Boy Jack is still the biggest narrative or wise guy horse I can remember. He was 20-1 morning line and went off at just over 6-1 as the second choice. The prevailing thought was that so many people bet the horse just because they might have had connections to the name Jack somehow. I remember being caught off guard by that. So looking at the race this year I’ve been trying to gauge who might take some narrative or wise guy money. 

The wise guy horse for me right now I think is Grande. I feel like a fair number of people are becoming interested in him and the fact that the great David Aragona has him at 15-1 on his line tells me the horse could have some wise guy steam. I was also thinking that Final Gambit could be a bit of a wise guy sleeper-type horse and take some more action than expected. Sometimes the horses that win the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) or come out of that race seem to take some money, but those horses have also had some recent success in the race like Two Phil's a couple of years ago. Brad Cox trains and I could see lots of players getting enticed by Final Gambit. 

As far as what I call narrative horses, Sandman has to be far and away the top for that one. The name alone will draw in Metallica fans, Mario Rivera fans, or just people who like gray horses. I’ve been told there’s some social media influencer types who have connections to the horse as well, so it’s a big recipe for him to be an underlay. Plus he’s also pretty good, so there’s that. 

One of the proven angles for horses to take narrative money is the smaller, less well-known trainer angle. This year’s examples of that are Coal Battle for trainer Lonnie Briley and Chunk of Gold for trainer Ethan West. Both are amazing examples of smaller barns getting a nice horse and getting their chance to run in the big race. They will both be covered a ton this week and many people (probably me too) will become attached to their stories and send it in on their horses. 

It’s possible Jayson Werth’s horse Flying Mohawk could also take a little bit of narrative money because of his famous owner, but he looks like a huge long shot and so I just wonder how much attention will be on him. I suppose we shall see. 

The Derby morning line and final odds to me are a very interesting because it’s just such a non-traditional race. Can’t wait to see who goes off at what price! 

Have a good weekend everyone!