Letting It Ride Against the Favorite At Arlington

Well, we finally got off the #Let8Ride snide last week, as our second choice traipsed home to an easy victory to advance us to day two for the first time in three tries. Of course, our second choice was the overwhelming favorite, so everyone else advanced too, but it’s still nice to get off the duck.

The good news for this week is the (morning line) favorite #3 Tapnfire looks vulnerable thanks in part to a couple of scratches to her inside.

The rail is winless in 14 races going one mile on the turf this year at Arlington International Racecourse, and that’s where Tapnfire ends up following those scratches. The inside posts (1-3) aren’t much better overall with just 7% wins for an odds-adjusted impact value of 0.64 (meaning those posts win less than the odds suggest).

So if not Tapnfire then who? #7 Giant Deduction and #10 Smiling Gambler are who I’m most interested in. The former won his debut, so this is a jump in class, but trainer Chris Block wins 23% with last-out maiden winners, and the bullet right back suggests this one is still sharp. The latter put up a big Brisnet.com Speed Rating when second against these types last out, and jockey Edgar Perez sticks around.