Likely Exchange: The little mare with outsized influence

If Old Man Winter decides to loosen his grip on Kentucky by the weekend, Turfway Park on Saturday will play host to a one-mile stakes for fillies and mares named in honor of Likely Exchange.

Who was Likely Exchange? In brief, a mare of hickory on the racetrack whose too short life as a producer nonetheless stretched in influence well into the 21st century.

Foaled in 1974, Likely Exchange was bred and raced by Pamela S. Humphrey, the widow of George M. Humphrey, who served as secretary of the treasury to President Dwight D. Eisenhower. After Pamela Humphrey's death in 1979, Likely Exchange raced for Humphrey's grandson G. Watts Humphrey Jr. and his aunt Pamela Firman.

Likely Exchange had her own share of blue blood, though her parents had traveled more in blue collar circles. Her sire Terrible Tiger won 23 of 72 starts, and though quick enough to win the Roseben H. in New York, his later stakes success occurred over the bullrings at Sportsman's Park in Chicago and the Marlboro fair in Maryland.

Likely Exchange's dam, Likely Swap, also had a rugged career by today's standards. A winner in 15 of 41 starts, her stakes successes occurred at tracks like Fair Grounds, Thistledown, and Latonia.

Both Likely Swap and Likely Exchange were trained by Tommy Stevens Sr., who at the time of his sudden passing in the spring of 1985 was the second winningest trainer in Keeneland history. Likely Exchange would prove to be the sixth-generation trainer's most notable runner.

That would have been hard to predict when Likely Exchange started her career in the summer of 1976, running for purses of $3,000 in maiden company at Ellis Park. And she looked no more than allowance class for much of 1977 after finishing up the track in her first three stakes attempts. By the end of that season, though, Likely Exchange found a stakes field she could beat, taking the Kentucky Cardinal S., a seven-furlong event at Churchill Downs, by a neck.

Her four-year-old campaign of 1978 encompassed 21 starts from mid-January through late November. In addition to a smattering of allowance wins, Likely Exchange captured the Fleur de Lis S. at Churchill as well as the Latonia Championship (a race her dam had also won) against males, cementing her status in the annals of the track that would be renamed Turfway.

Arguably a more notable accomplishment in 1978 was Likely Exchange's third-place finish to three-year-old filly champion Tempest Queen in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland, proof the mare could acquit herself well on occasion against the country's best.

The year 1979 was a good one for the Stevens family. While his brother Herb was conditioning Rockhill Native to a two-year-old title, Tommy Stevens Sr. earned the lone Grade 1 win of his career when Likely Exchange pulled off a 4 3/4-length victory in the 1 1/4-mile Delaware H. (G1).

In advance of the Del 'Cap, Tommy Stevens Jr., who briefly followed the family tradition of training after his father's death, spoke about the diminutive Likely Exchange and the challenges his father had to overcome with her.

"She's skinny, weighs about 750 pounds. But she's fat compared to what she was a couple years ago when she was 50 to 65 pounds lighter," said Stevens Jr., who at the time was a jockey's agent. "Dad used to be ashamed to lead her to the paddock. And if it weren't for the fact that she could run, he wouldn't have shown her in public.

"She used to be really skinny...Because her bones protruded when she lay down in her stall, she used to develop sores all over her body. So Dad had to make her bedding very deep, to provide a little cushion for her bones.

"She eats up everything in front of her, but like some people, never puts on any weight."

Although the 1979 edition of the Del 'Cap didn't quite live up to its lofty grade from a depth perspective, it was through no fault of Likely Exchange, who went on to place in the Spinster again as a six-year-old in 1980, beaten only by the outstanding three-year-olds Bold 'n Determined and Love Sign.

Likely Exchange won two stakes in 1980, including a second Fleur de Lis, and after six starts in early 1981, time was called on her racing career. She nearly went out with a bang, running future Hall of Famer Bold 'n Determined to a head in the Bewitch S. during the Keeneland spring meet.

In a feat of pure coincidence, Likely Exchange emulated her sire's race record to a tee, winning 23 of 72 starts. She earned more than $475,000, the equivalent of $1.5-$2 million today.

Little known at the time of her career finale in the Bewitch was that Likely Exchange had just conceived her first foal, by Rich Cream, thus was pregnant when she walked off the track for the last time. The resulting offspring was Crème Fraiche, who in 1985 became the first gelding to win the Belmont S. (G1). 

Crème Fraiche earned more than $4 million and won 14 stakes overall. Seven were Grade 1s, including back-to-back editions of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in 1986-87.

Although he closely followed Crème Fraiche's career, Stevens did not live to see the gelding's classic success after suffering a fatal heart attack one month before the Belmont.

Likely Exchange's next two foals died early in life. Her second foal to reach maturity was Dream Deal, who captured the 1989 Monmouth Oaks (G1). Dream Deal would later produce Japanese champion To the Victory; Clear Mandate, who won the Spinster and two other Grade 1s; and Churchill Downs Distaff (G2) heroine Dream Scheme. Clear Mandate herself would rear Strong Mandate, winner of the 2013 Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga.

Likely Exchange's last foal Hebba, a filly by Nureyev, was born in 1987.

"He loved both mares (Likely Swap and Likely Exchange), but he really loved Likely Exchange," Stevens Jr. said after his father's death. "She was honest, she ran hard and she gave you everything she had every time."