Louisiana Downs: How to bet the $1,527 Super High 5 carryover

There’s no such thing as an easy Super High 5 wager, but we must concede that Saturday’s 50-cent Super High 5 at Louisiana Downs—which features a $1,527 carryover—looks fairly straightforward to handicap.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 8, a $12,500 starter optional claimer taking place over 7 1/2 furlongs on turf. With eight horses in the entries, there are only 6,720 possible outcomes, and we can slice that down to 840 if we key morning line favorite #1 Freedom Factor (5-2) on top.

Freedom Factor is an eight-year-old veteran with a 4-2-2-0 record over the Louisiana Downs turf. His most recent start over this course came last fall, when he ran second in a $35,000 allowance optional claimer traveling 7 1/2 furlongs.

Freedom Factor has been facing tougher competition than he’ll encounter on Saturday. Three starts back, he won a $25,000 claimer racing one mile over the Sam Houston turf course, and last time out he ran fourth in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer racing 7 1/2 furlongs on turf at Lone Star Park.

The quality of competition Freedom Factor has been facing is reflected in his Brisnet Speed ratings. His last six numbers are 88, 77, 83, 79, 76, and 81, stamping him as the fastest horse in Saturday’s field. Only #4 Hostile Afleet (9-2) has been posting similar numbers as of late, and Hostile Afleet has been putting up those numbers in dirt sprints. As a result, Freedom Factor looms as a standout while dropping in class and returning to Louisiana Downs.

Who should we use underneath the favorite? That’s a tough question since only three of the seven remaining entrants have ever won on turf. One of those is Hostile Afleet, who boasts two wins from three starts on grass. His Brisnet Speed ratings are lower on grass, and he hasn’t tackled the surface in a while, but Hostile Afleet’s sharp recent form on dirt suggests he’s worth including in the Super High 5.

#2 Run Rocket (5-1) is another key contender. Two starts back, he ran second in a $10,000 starter allowance racing one mile over the Evangeline Downs turf course. He cracks the trifecta more often than not on turf and is adding blinkers for hot trainer Jonah Fuselier (2-for-3, 67% this meet), so there’s a lot to like about Run Rocket.

Nor can we underestimate #7 I’m d’Cat (7-2), the final proven turf winner in the field. After competing on dirt during the fall and winter, I’m d’Cat switched back to turf for a $12,500 claimer racing 7 1/2 furlongs at Louisiana Downs and finished a decent fifth. Under hot jockey Jose Guerrero (a 20% winner at Louisiana Downs this meet), I’m d’Cat has top-five potential.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• 50-cent Super High 5: 1 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,7 with 3,5,6,8 ($12)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 1 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,7 with 3,5,6,8 with 2,4,7 ($12)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 1 with 2,4,7 with 3,5,6,8 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,7 ($12)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 1 with 3,5,6,8 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,7 ($12)
  Total: $48

Good luck!