Lukewarm Breeders' Cup favorites typically ones to avoid

When the betting public has a hard time making up its mind who it favors to win a race, chances are they'll ultimately be wide of the mark. That's been the case, at least, in the Breeders' Cup over the past decade.

"Lukewarm" favorites, defined here as post-time favorites that start at odds of 3-1 or higher, have accounted for roughly 20 percent of all Breeders' Cup race favorites over the past 10 years. From a sample of 28 races during the period, only four of those favorites won (14 percent), while 11 in total finished in the top three (39 percent). By comparison, the overall record of favorites is 38-for-137 (27.7 percent), with 82 in the money (59.9 percent).

The record of lukewarm favorites in the past two Breeders' Cups held at Keeneland (2015 and 2020) is worse. They are 0-for-7, with only two having hit the board.

Year	Race	Horse	Odds	Finish
2012	Marathon	Atigun	3.10	3
	Juvenile Turf	Unbridled's Note	4.70	2
	Turf Sprint	Noble Tune	3.90	2
	Sprint	Amazombie	3.10	3
2013	Marathon	Ever Rider	4.80	DNF
	Filly and Mare Sprint	Groupie Doll	3.00	1
2014	Juvenile Turf	War Envoy	3.50	12
	Juvenile Fillies	Angela Renee	3.30	10
	Filly and Mare Sprint	Judy the Beauty	3.10	1
	Turf Sprint	No Nay Never	3.60	2
2015	Turf Sprint	Undrafted	3.70	5
	Filly and Mare Sprint	Cavorting	3.40	4
	Juvenile	Greenpointcrusader	3.50	7
2016	Juvenile Fillies Turf	La Coronel	4.00	6
	Juvenile Fillies	American Gal	4.40	3
	Turf Sprint	Obviously	3.80	1
	Filly and Mare Sprint	Carina Mia	3.10	9
	Mile	Limato	3.40	6
2017	Juvenile Turf	Mendelssohn	4.80	1
2018	Juvenile Turf	Anthony Van Dyck	3.10	9
2019	Juvenile Fillies Turf	Daahyeh	3.80	2
	Turf Sprint	Pure Sensation	3.70	5
	Mile	Got Stormy	3.10	2
2020	Juvenile Turf	Battleground	3.80	2
	Turf Sprint	Leinster	4.40	3
	Mile	Kameko	5.30	7
	Classic	Tiz the Law	3.20	6
2021	Juvenile Fillies Turf	Koala Princess	4.80	7

Turf races, traditionally the most competitive type and with the biggest fields, account for 17 of the 28 races in the sample, with the Turf Sprint (G1) and Juvenile Turf (G1) leading the pack with six races and five races, respectively. The Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) and Mile (G1) come in with three apiece.

Of the dirt races, the Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) has produced the most lukewarm favorites. However, of the four lukewarm favorites to have won a Breeders' Cup race in the last 10 years, two of them were Filly and Mare Sprint winners: Groupie Doll in 2013 (3.00-1) and Judy the Beauty in 2014 (3.10-1). The others were Obviously in the 2016 Turf Sprint (3.80-1) and Mendelssohn in the 2017 Juvenile Turf (4.80-1).

With such a modest record of achievement in the past decade, bettors might want to think twice about backing lukewarm favorites at the upcoming Breeders' Cup, not only in the straight win pool but also in multi-race wagers. The latter makes the most sense: if a race is determined to be a "spread" race for a multi-race wager, why include a favorite the crowd considers vulnerable and thus is not too keen on to begin with? Better to try and beat it and save on the cost of your ticket.

While it's still a bit early to guess which Breeders' Cup races will have longer-priced favorites, potential candidates include some old standbys, like the Filly and Mare Sprint, Juvenile Fillies, and Juvenile Fillies Turf. Races for certain not to qualify include the Classic (G1) with Flightline, Distaff (G1) with Nest and Malathaat, Juvenile (G1) with Cave Rock, Sprint (G1) with Jackie's Warrior, and Turf Sprint (G1) with Golden Pal.

Knowing what kind of horses are best avoided is often just as important as who to latch onto. Recent history suggests Breeders' Cup favorites the betting public is very cool towards is one such group.