Mandatory payout: Pick 6 carryover of $6,004 at Churchill Downs

Editor's note: Aqueduct has postponed Sunday's Pick 6, featuring a carryover of $83,912, to Thursday. Significant rainfall has prompted the postponement of the Miss Grillo (G2) to Oct. 6 and the transfer of Sunday's four undercard turf races to the main track.

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares a single for the mandatory-payout Pick 6 carryover on Sunday at Churchill Downs.

Churchill Downs, Race 5: $6,004 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:45 p.m. ET)

Sunday is closing day of the Churchill Downs September meet, which means the $6,004 carryover in the 20-cent “Derby City 6” Pick 6 is slated for mandatory payout.

Before scratches, the six races contain 50 horses (averaging about 8.3 per race), which equates to 272,160 possible Pick 6 outcomes. A couple of six-horse fields and one seven-horse field simplify the sequence from a mathematical standpoint.

We have a bold single to recommend. In Race 10, a six-furlong dirt maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies, we’re all-in on #7 Souk Plaza (2-1) as the most likely winner, even though she’s never raced and is facing 11 rivals.

A Godolphin homebred conditioned by high-percentage trainer Brad Cox (a 22% winner with first-time starters), Souk Plaza has put together an eye-catching work tab at Churchill Downs, highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :46 2/5. The beautifully bred half-sister to Lexington (G3) winner Encino looks ready to produce a winning debut under jockey Florent Geroux, a 27% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

Another horse we strongly recommend using is #2 Happy Am I (1-1) in Race 8, a $100,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Happy Am I has cracked the trifecta in three of her last four starts against stakes competition, including in the Roxelana S. and Open Mind S. dashing six furlongs at Churchill Downs.

Dropping out of the stakes ranks should make Happy Am I tough to beat. She’s won her last three non-stakes starts by daylight margins and isn’t facing the toughest field on Sunday. Throw in the fact she has Churchill’s leading jockey Tyler Gaffalione (a 23% winner this meet) in the saddle, and Happy I Am is a possible second single for bettors playing on tight budgets.

Good luck!