Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem April 3, 2023

A good Monday morning to you all! Back when I lived in Portland, Oregon, I used to listen to the sports radio host Jim Rome a lot on the sports radio station. He used to always mention about big games “I don’t root for Team A or Team B, I root for team content.” I never really understood that mentality until I hosted a podcast.

I think to me sports was always about having a winner and a loser and rooting for your team to win. Now of course I still have connections or horses that I root for or want to win; I think it’s difficult to watch racing without having some sort of biased lens, especially if we have them on a ticket. But most of the time, I honestly just want something interesting to happen so I can talk about it and also hear others talk about it. 

All that said, I feel like the Florida Derby (G1) gave us plenty to talk about, which is interesting because the clear favorite won and the clear second choice ran second, which is usually a recipe for not all that much intrigue. However the way the race shaped up, it provided a lot of drama and I think a lot of questions going forward. 

In my opinion I think Forte did little to change his potential favorite role in the Kentucky Derby (G1). I don’t think he lowered his forthcoming odds or increased them based on this effort. I saw the time and speed figures were adjusted the next day, so his numbers going in aren’t all that dominant or even much higher than a lot of his competition. However he’s been regularly winning and consistent and runs for big name connections. So barring anything really explosive happening this weekend, I do think he’s your post time favorite for the Derby, but not too big of one. 

Mage might have been the most interesting horse though for me both going in and coming out of the Florida Derby. He didn’t break all that great, which based on his TWO lifetime starts seemed like a bad thing. I mean, breaking last usually is never a good thing, but for some horses it’s a total end to their chances. But Luis Saez didn’t panic and let Mage get into stride at the back of the pack. They slowly started to gather momentum down the backstretch and then really made a powerful move on the turn. 

When he went by Forte on the turn so easily I think many race watchers thought that was it for the big favorite. But to me it looked like Forte and Irad Ortiz Jr. were going to try to stay in and wait. Because once Mage went by and he swung to the outside he clearly took off into the bit. I think we’re so used to horses getting passed and not re-rallying, that I think many were surprised Forte did it. But to me it was a little more about Mage getting the jump than “running by him,” since I think Irad was planning on waiting for a seam to open up. I think when Mage went by Irad aborted that plan and immediately knew he’d have to chase down Mage, which he did. 

It was only Mage’s third career start and things were certainly made more difficult by the slow start he had. Was it the distance that got him in the end? I mean, it could have been, but again this was only his third career start. He could certainly have more fitness and get more distance off of this race. Although the Derby in career start number four is a big ask, it’s not exactly unprecedented as Justify did it just five years ago. Of course, he was Justify, so it’s not exactly a low bar Mage has to get to. 

All in all, I think the top two from the Florida Derby are utterly fascinating horses and will both get lots of consideration come the first Saturday in May. Everyone have a great week!