Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem for Jan. 6, 2025

A good Monday morning to you all! First Monday of 2025 and we’re getting towards a fun part of the racing calendar. I know there’s an official start to the Road to the Kentucky Derby, but I always view the Lecomte (G3) as kind of the real kick-off of it for me. If you asked me to name my top 10 newly turned three-year-olds, I’m not sure I could even name 10 of them. But post-Lecomte, we get into having preps for the Derby and Kentucky Oaks (G1) almost every weekend and we start to get to know this year's three-year-old class a little bit better. 

With Bob Baffert back into the mix for the Kentucky Derby, he’ll no doubt be an even bigger storyline than he normally is, just because of the three-year suspension coming to an end. I started to say on my podcast for Monday, "He probably really wants to win it this year." But I stopped myself and out loud ridiculed myself for such a dumb comment because of course he wants to win it every year. Also, as a trainer, he can’t really “try harder” to win a race. But early returns so far he’s got a number of bullets as expected, including Barnes, who was terrific this weekend winning the San Vicente (G2) out at Santa Anita. 

I think my favorite story of the weekend was the score by Coal Battle in the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn. Last year’s (aka three weeks ago) Springboard Mile champ went gate-to-wire in a little bit of a funny edition of the Smarty Jones. It looked like everyone was grabbing a hold early so the pace and the race itself just took kind of a strange shape. But Coal Battle drew away down the lane to win nicely and pick up a few points towards a spot in the gate in the Kentucky Derby. 

Trainer Lonnie Briley and jockey Juan Vargas have to be thrilled with the win, but the road through Arkansas is never an easy one as Baffert, Brad Cox, and Steve Asmussen will certainly have big name horses pointed towards the Southwest (G3), Rebel (G2), and eventually the Arkansas Derby (G1).  

With $453,875 in career earnings, Coal Battle is already the richest horse that Lonnie Briley has ever trained, and the richest horse that Juan Vargas has ever ridden. Briley’s training career goes all the way back to 1991 and on paper it certainly looks as though it’s been a long, slow build to get to this point with a horse like this. Briley gradually won a few more races and earned a few more dollars, but his horses didn’t crack $400,000 for the first time until 2018. Last year was the first time in his career he’d topped the $1 million earnings mark for a calendar year. The 72-year-old trainer now has a horse on the Kentucky Derby trail and is probably the early sentimental favorite for a lot of folks. Kudos to Lonnie and Juan. 

A little closer to home (well my home anyway), we saw Guns Loaded score in the Mucho Macho Man S. at Gulfstream. The one-turn mile race saw Guns Loaded make the lead, pull away turning for home and then nearly get caught by longshot Treaty of Rome. To me it looked like the classic “didn’t get the distance” type effort from Guns Loaded. It only being his third start, though, certainly there’s room for improvement and more fitness. But the fact that he was opening up turning for home and then getting tired at the end gave me pause on him going forward to longer distances and eventually two turns. 

Everyone have a great week!