Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem July 29, 2024

A good Monday morning to you all! Coming off another weekend of summer racing, these days are long. I’m typing this as I watch the finale at Del Mar, and it’s 10 p.m. out here on the east coast.

Growing up out west, it will never not seem weird to me how late sporting events go out here. I still remember my first summer at River Downs and trying to stay up to watch the end of an NBA Finals game. I made it to about the third quarter.

The weird thing is now having lived out east for most of the last five years, I finally feel used to things starting and ending later. Out west once the racing in California was done, you either played Los Al or Cal Expo. Maybe some end-of-card Balmoral Park. And if you were really staying up late, you could even bet Australia A or B. Back then, it was only A and B. But I digress.

Really enjoyed Saturday’s Jim Dandy S. (G2) and after the announcement of Thorpedo Anna going to the Travers (G1), I feel like my anticipation for that race might be greater than it’s ever been for past editions. Saratoga really didn’t come onto my radar until 2003 so if you’re wanting to cite me Travers S. from before that, don’t worry about it.

This year’s Triple Crown series seemed to show us how wide open the top of this three-year-old class really is. They’ve kind of taken turns beating each other and, to me, that’s the sign of a even-matched and interesting division. Sure, it’s fun when a horse like Thorpedo Anna dominates and wins, but in my opinion that can get old quick.

As fans, we always want to see horses keep trying to go up the ladder of difficulty. When I interviewed Doug Cowans a couple of weeks ago, he talked about his horse Next and the discussions about running that horse in shorter but more prestigious (and richer) races. He basically said it's hard to take a horse out of something they seem to be so happy doing. I think Next’s fans will be excited to see him run wherever, but after that last win in the Brooklyn (G2) it sure seemed as though the calls to try something new were amplified. 

Fierceness’s penchant for winning every other race sure has given his reputation, and the talks around him, a real roller-coaster effect. He was the Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite after his Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) win. Then it seemed like a bunch of people jumped off the hype train after his third in the Holy Bull (G3). Although, maybe that was just noise, because he did go off a solid favorite in the Florida Derby (G1) when he thumped his rivals.

After his Kentucky Derby loss and not showing up in the other two Triple Crown races, it seemed again many (me included) were questioning just how good he was or wasn’t. I don’t know that he proved his doubters (me included) wrong on Saturday. I think most of us can agree we know he’s capable of running and winning big races with big performances. But do we see the really good Fierceness if he goes in the Travers, or does he regress or just run poorly, as he tends to do after wins? The beauty of our game is we shouldn't have to wait too long to find out.

But I’m glad Fierceness threw himself back into the conversation of things. The roller coaster is fun, and it makes for fun debate and wagering when his next start comes around.

While discussing the upcoming Travers on my podcast for Monday, I wondered aloud who would be the favorites if all the probables do show up in the Travers in a few weeks. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if any of Sierra Leone, Fierceness or Thorpedo Anna are favorites, or at least close, in the betting. Unfortunate for Dornoch, but good for his supporters, I think he’ll be fourth choice or higher behind those three. My gut says Sierra Leone is a tiny favorite over Fierceness and then just a little bit further back will be Thorpedo Anna. Maybe Dornoch and Mindframe are close fourth and fifth choices at like 6-1 or 8-1? Regardless, it’s going to be a lot of fun in Saratoga in a few weeks.

Everyone have a great week!