Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 12-1 at Ellis Park

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Aug. 19 at Ellis Park, along with horses to play in the $678 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Ellis Park 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Ellis Park every Monday from July 15 through Aug. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 2:54 p.m. ET)

#4 Haunted Flame (12-1) didn’t show much in his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs against maiden special weight competition at Ellis Park, but he did pass a few rivals over the muddy dirt track to run sixth behind First Resort, who returned to finish second in the Saratoga Special (G2).

Haunted Flame’s pedigree offers potential for success while stretching out over one mile on turf, and it’s important to note trainer Brian Lynch wins at a 24% rate with horses making their first grass start. Throw in the fact Haunted Flame is adding blinkers, which may sharpen his speed a bit, and this bay two-year-old is worth betting to win at his 12-1 morning line odds.

Selections

• #4 Haunted Flame (12-1)
• #1 Poster (3-1)
• #8 Optical (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Haunted Flame

Ellis Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 3:26 p.m. ET)

#11 Jazz Party (6-1) received plenty of betting support when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park last month, but she failed to show much speed and ran into some traffic on her way to finishing ninth.

There are reasons to believe Jazz Party can improve on Monday. She’s adding blinkers, which is a 29% winning move for trainer Brad Cox. Plus, Cox wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters and at a 29% rate with horses running long for the first time.

Throw in the fact Jazz Party is picking up hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 31% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months), and there are enough positive angles in Jazz Party’s corner to warrant a win bet.

Selections

• #11 Jazz Party (6-1)
• #9 Medaglia Forever (3-1)
• #6 Sonhador (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #11 Jazz Party

Ellis Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:52 p.m. ET)

Since 2019, trainer Brad Cox has gone 3-for-5 (60%) saddling experienced juveniles in turf routes at Ellis Park. That includes a 2-for-2 (100%) tally since 2021.

These stats bode well for Cox’s #2 Always Forever (3-1), a two-year-old daughter of Medaglia d’Oro. She finished second in her debut over this course, distance, and class level on July 21, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths in a race that featured quick closing fractions.

Cox wins at a 30% rate with horses running long for the second time, and Florent Geroux retains the mount, so now that Always Forever has a race under her belt, the stage is set for victory. A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Always Forever (3-1)
• #4 Fixin to Bee (12-1)
• #10 Vixen (5-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #2 Always Forever

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $678 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

There’s a $678 carryover up for grabs in Monday’s $1 Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs.

The feature event in the sequence is Race 7, the Satin and Lace S. for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on Tapeta. Seven horses have entered, but don’t let the small field size fool you—this is a competitive contest, and we recommend using three horses in the Pick 5.

The first is morning line favorite #2 Queen of the Mud (5-2), who brings strong form lines to the table. Winner of an Aqueduct maiden special weight and a Keeneland allowance last fall, Queen of the Mud is 0-for-2 this year, but both of her defeats have come against tough competition in stakes. In the May 17 The Very One S. at Pimlico, Queen of the Mud finished fourth by 2 1/2 lengths against Future Is Now, who returned to win the Intercontinental (G2). Then in the June 22 Goldwood S. at Monmouth Park, Queen of the Mud finished second by 1 1/4 lengths against next-out Andy Guest S. winner Beauty of the Sea.

There’s only one problem: Queen of the Mud has competed exclusively on turf and is unproven on Tapeta. Trainer Graham Motion wins at a 27% rate with horses switching from turf to synthetic, which is encouraging, but there’s no guarantee Queen of the Mud will relish the change.

Therefore, we’ll want to include a couple of rivals who have proven effective on Tapeta. The first is #3 Baby No Worries (4-1), who has put together a 9-3-2-2 record at Presque Isle Downs and a 21-4-4-5 tally on all synthetic tracks. Her last start at Presque Isle yielded a rallying triumph in a $40,000 allowance optional claimer, and she’s since cracked the trifecta in a couple of Tapeta stakes, finishing second in Turfway Park’s Wishing Well S. and third in Woodbine’s Whimsical (G3).

#1 Sunday Shoes (3-1) misfired in the Whimsical, finishing 11th, but she’d previously gone 3-for-3 on Tapeta at Turfway Park, even winning the six-furlong Serena’s Song S. last year. The four-year-old filly has posted sharp workouts in preparation for the Satin and Lace and is eligible to bounce back for high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward.

By using Queen of the Mud, Baby No Worries, and Sunday Shoes in equal strength, we should have every chance to survive the penultimate leg of the Pick 5.

Good luck!