Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $12,463 Finger Lakes Pick 6

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, June 24 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, along with a single for the $12,463 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win bets every Monday through Wednesday in June.
• Presque Isle Downs 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers at Presque Isle Downs (excluding show bets) on Mondays in June and July.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

High-percentage trainer Heather Irion has gone 2-for-6 (33%) at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet and 2-for-4 (50%) debuting horses in maiden special weights in recent years. These stats bode well for Irion’s unraced juvenile #3 Quality Storm (6-1).

A son of Blofeld (who sires 20% winners from first-time starters), Quality Storm breezed a solid half-mile in :49 1/5 last Tuesday. Jockey Reynier Arrieta (a 21% winner teaming up with Irion over the last two months) is named to ride, so let’s try a win bet on Quality Storm.

Selections

• #3 Quality Storm (6-1)
• #2 Permit to Carry (8-5)
• #1 Anytime Anywhere (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Quality Storm

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:47 p.m. ET)

#4 Reining Flowers (9-2) ran strongly when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis lawn. Despite running into traffic, she gobbled up ground down the homestretch, gaining four lengths through the final furlong to finish second by three lengths.

Reining Flowers has the pedigree to stretch out over 7 1/2 furlongs for trainer John Ortiz, who wins at a 17% rate with second-time starters, so if Reining Flowers gets a clear trip she’ll be tough to beat. A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Reining Flowers (9-2)
• #8 Total Heart (5-2)
• #10 No Pardon (8-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #4 Reining Flowers

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Golden Boy S. (six furlongs on dirt, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#5 Mr Fillip (1-1) towers over this field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. Whereas none of his rivals have posted a number higher than 81, Mr Fillip has thrown down numbers in the 90-97 range on three occasions, including when dominating the six-furlong Golden Circle S. at Prairie Meadows by 13 1/4 lengths.

Let’s bet Mr Fillip on top of a trifecta using #4 Magnolia Speed (5-2) and #2 Canyouhearmerunnin (3-1) for the minor awards. They recently finished 1-2 in the five-furlong Bobby Q S. at Assiniboia Downs.

Selections

• #5 Mr Fillip (1-1)
• #4 Magnolia Speed (5-2)
• #2 Canyouhearmerunnin (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Trifecta: 5 with 2,4 with 2,4 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $12,463 Pick 6 carryover (2:13 p.m. ET)

The $1 Pick 6 at Finger Lakes was last solved on June 11. Four racing days have elapsed since then without anyone assembling a winning ticket, which is why there’s a quadruple carryover worth $12,463 up for grabs when racing resumes at the New York oval on Monday.

The six-race sequence contains two stakes. The first is the $50,000 Niagara S. for New York-bred three-year-old fillies dashing six furlongs on dirt. Only half a dozen horses have entered, and Brisnet Speed ratings suggest #1 Sweet Brown Sugar (2-5) will win for fun.

Sweet Brown Sugar opened her career with back-to-back victories against non-state-restricted competition at Finger Lakes. In a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight, she wired the field by 6 3/4 lengths, earning an 80 Brisnet Speed rating. Then she smashed the six-furlong Shesastonecoldfox S. by 5 1/2 lengths with an 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

This year, Sweet Brown Sugar has competed exclusively at Aqueduct. She opened the year with a pair of defeats, but then bounced back to win a 6 1/2-furlong $80,000 allowance optional claimer for New York-breds and the six-furlong East View S. by daylight margins. Those victories yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 87 and 90.

Returning to Finger Lakes should make Sweet Brown Sugar mighty tough to beat for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Jeremias Flores and Paul Barrow, who have gone 9-for-19 (47%) teaming up together over the last two months. None of her five Niagara rivals have ever earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 76, so we’ll make Sweet Brown Sugar a confident Pick 6 single.

The other stakes is Race 5, the six-furlong $50,000 Ontario County S. for New York-bred three-year-olds. #3 Mischief Joke (9-5) finished last in the seven-furlong Mike Lee S. at Saratoga just over three weeks ago, but if you draw a line through that misfire, his form is solid. He owns the four highest Brisnet Speed ratings in the Ontario County field and is a must-use contender.

Still, there are a couple of others with win credentials if Mischief Joke misfires again. #2 Stars N Stones (5-2) has earned decent Brisnet Speed ratings at Finger Lakes, most recently posting an 88 when second in a six-furlong non-state-restricted allowance against older horses. And Gulfstream Park raider #4 Hay Hay Harry (5-1) has been competing in claimers against older horses, so tackling New York-bred sophomores at Finger Lakes might actually be an easier task. His Brisnet Seed ratings are respectable.

Good luck!