Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $154,335 Pick 5 mandatory payout

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, July 29 at Ellis Park and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with analysis of carryovers (including a $154,335 mandatory payout) at Ellis and Prairie Meadows.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Presque Isle Downs 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers at Presque Isle Downs (excluding show bets) on Mondays in June and July.
• Ellis Park 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Ellis Park every Monday from July 15 through Aug. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 1:49 p.m. ET)

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, the fastest filly in this field is #8 Letstalkaboutme (1-1), and it’s not even close. The daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify has finished second by margins of a head and a neck in her last two starts over this class level at Churchill Downs, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 86 and 88.

None of Letstalkaboutme’s Monday rivals have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 81, so the door is wide open for Letstalkaboutme to break her maiden. #2 Yo Leven (6-1) and #3 Victorious Nyquist (8-1) can battle for a spot in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Letstalkaboutme (1-1)
• #3 Victorious Nyquist (8-1)
• #2 Yo Leven (6-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 8 with 2,3 ($20)

Ellis Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 3:26 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Rodolphe Brisset has gone 2-for-2 saddling experienced juveniles in dirt routes at Ellis Park. So let’s take a shot backing Brisset’s second-time starter #1 Bread to Run (12-1), who finished fourth in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Ellis Park.

Brisset wins at a 29% rate with second-time starters, so there’s every reason to believe Bread to Run can move forward in a big way while adding blinkers and stretching out over one mile. At 12-1, she’s worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #1 Bread to Run (12-1)
• #3 Peanut Gallery (5-1)
• #2 Quinn’s Promise (15-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Bread to Run

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 5:16 p.m. ET)

#8 Sig Forty Five (8-1) has put together a decent work tab at Horseshoe Indianapolis in preparation for his debut. On June 26, he clocked half a mile in :48 1/5. On July 13, he traveled five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.

Trainer Aaron West has gone 4-for-19 (21%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis since 2021, a stat suggesting Sig Forty Five is overpriced at his 8-1 morning line odds. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 Sig Forty Five (8-1)
• #10 David’s Creed (5-2)
• #6 Large Pour (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Sig Forty Five

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $4,487 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

The Monday card at Ellis Park is highlighted by a $4,487 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 1, a $20,000 starter optional claimer for three-year-olds and older horses sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. A large field has turned out, and there are many viable win contenders.

One longshot you shouldn’t leave off your tickets is #3 W W Crazy (15-1). The six-year-old gelding ran strongly in a $25,000 claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Ellis Park two weeks ago, rallying nicely to finish third by a neck. The 86 Brisnet Speed rating he received stacks up well against Monday’s field, and there should be enough pace in this race to set up W W Crazy’s late rally. A spot in the top five is quite possibly within reach.

Prairie Meadows: Race 9: $154,335 Pick 5 mandatory payout (8:23 p.m. ET)

The $154,335 jackpot carryover in the 50-cent Pick 5 at Prairie Meadows is slated for mandatory payout on Monday. It’s a betting opportunity you won’t want to miss.

Looking for singles to build tickets around? We have a couple of suggestions. In Race 11, a $10,000 claimer for Iowa-bred fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt, #8 My Firing Line (2-1) looks formidable. She’s finished third in three straight $20,000 claimers at Prairie Meadows and should appreciate facing easier competition. Trainer Gene Jacquot wins at a 23% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, and My Firing Line is picking up apprentice jockey Tyler Bacon (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance), so the stage is set for My Firing Line to shine.

#2 Sweet and Ez (3-1) in Race 13 also looks single-worthy. Race 13 is a $5,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on dirt, conditions that should suit Sweet and Ez to perfection. Two starts back, she dueled for the lead on her way to finishing fourth in a $20,000 maiden claimer over this track and distance. Last time out, she improved to finish second in a $10,000 maiden claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Prairie Meadows. Red-hot trainer Kevin Eikleberry wins at a 33% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so tackling a $5,000 claimer stamps Sweet and Ez as the horse to beat.

Good luck!