Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $376,658 Pick 5 mandatory payout

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, April 8 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a ticket for the mandatory-payout $376,658 Pick 5 carryover at Parx Racing

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Turfway Park shippers fared well during the opening days of the 2023 Horseshoe Indianapolis meet, and we’ll look for that trend to continue in 2024.

#1 Binge (10-1) was tons the best in a $5,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Turfway last month, leading all the way to dominate by 4 3/4 lengths with a career-best 83 Brisnet Speed rating. That marked his second start since being claimed by trainer Joseph Davis.

Binge has trained at Horseshoe Indianapolis all winter and is retaining the services of apprentice jockey German Terraza, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance. Terraza has won at a 24% rate teaming up with Davis over the last two months, so if morning line favorites #8 Spotonjustice (9-5) and #7 Luckies Joy (5-2) turn out to be rusty while running for the first time since November, Binge can spring a double-digit upset.

Let’s bet Binge to win and key him over Luckies Joy in a small exacta.

Selections

• #1 Binge (10-1)
• #7 Luckies Joy (5-2)
• #8 Spotonjustice (9-5)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Binge
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 7
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 12:29 p.m. ET)

#7 No Laca Charm (8-1) showed very little in two starts at Turfway Park during the winter, finishing last in a maiden special weight and a $50,000 maiden claimer. But at Horseshoe Indianapolis last fall, she hit the board in a couple of 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weights for Indiana-breds.

Returning to the same track, distance, and class level as last fall can help No Laca Charm bounce back with a winning run. She’s the only horse in the field who has raced this year, so we’ll count on No Laca Charm’s fitness to prevail. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 No Laca Charm (8-1)
• #10 When’s Forever (3-1)
• #4 Charming Jazel (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 No Laca Charm

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 12:58 p.m. ET)

#10 Molly’s Town (12-1) couldn’t quite handle stepping up against non-state-restricted stakes foes at Churchill Downs and Oaklawn last fall, finishing fourth in the Ed Brown S. and fifth in the Advent S. But Molly’s Town showed early speed in both of those races while taking on talented rivals like Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up Just Steel and three-time stakes winner Valentine Candy.

Molly’s Town had previously gone unbeaten and unchallenged in four starts against Indiana-breds at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including two decisive stakes wins. Returning to the Indiana-bred ranks for a 5 1/2-furlong handicap should place Molly’s Town in the hunt for victory at enticing odds.

Let’s bet Molly’s Town to win and play him over #4 Mr. Chaos (8-1) and #11 Classic Max (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #10 Molly’s Town (12-1)
• #4 Mr Chaos (8-1)
• #11 Classic Max (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Molly’s Town
• $5 Exacta: 10 with 4,11 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Parx Racing: Race 7: $376,658 Pick 5 mandatory payout (3:26 p.m. ET)

Monday is a big day of racing at Parx, because the massive $376,658 jackpot carryover in the 50-cent “Philly Big 5” Pick 5 is scheduled for a mandatory payout. All bettors who select the highest numbers of winner (presumably five) will split the carryover, no unique winning ticket required.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence and assemble a ticket for $120:

Race 7: $5,000 Claiming (1 1/16 miles)

Speed shines running long on dirt at Parx, but there isn’t much pace in the opening leg of the Pick 5, which could lend an insurmountable advantage to #6 City Rage (2-1). He regularly sets or presses solid fractions, and three starts back he wired a $10,000 claimer over this track and distance by 6 1/4 lengths. He’s been freshened since a December misfire by high-percentage trainer Jamie Ness and looks tough to beat while dropping into a $5,000 claimer, so we’ll make City Rage a single.

Race 8: $5,000 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs)

#1 Perfect Silent Cat (3-1) endured a wide trip from an outside post when finishing eighth in a $10,000 claimer at Parx last time out. He’d previously finished first and second in $7,500 claimers over this track, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 83 and 89. Post 1 has produced 22% winners in 6 1/2-furlong dirt sprints at Parx this meet, so drawing the rail and dropping into a $5,000 claimer should make Perfect Silent Cat formidable.

But for good measure, we’ll include #2 Souper Fly Over (7-2)—who threw down a strong 92 Brisnet Speed rating when second in a $5,000 claimer over this track and distance last month—and also #4 Petulant Delight (6-1), who has crossed the wire in first or second place in each of his last three starts against $5,000 claiming competition on fast tracks at Parx.

Race 9: $16,000 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards)

#7 Vine Jet (5-1) has been in strong form and absolutely shredded a $5,000 claimer over this track and distance last month, leading all the way to win by 8 3/4 lengths with a career-best 97 Brisnet Speed rating. Since speed is dangerous in dirt routes at Parx, we have to afford Vine Jet respect, though rivals like #3 Yes Sir Colonel (9-2), #6 My Redemption (6-1), and #8 Olympic Romp (8-1) also have the talent to shine if Vine Jet comes back down to earth.

Race 10: $25,000 Starter Allowance (one mile and 70 yards)

Continuing with our theme of backing speed horses in routes, we have to support #7 Laytown (3-1), who hasn’t missed the trifecta in his last 10 starts while routinely setting or pressing the pace. But since Laytown was beaten to third place over this track, distance, and class level on March 12, we’ll also use #3 Thirsty Pappy (7-2)—the reasonably speedy runner-up on March 12—plus the class-dropping #1 Big Boys Answer (8-1) and the live longshot #10 Rerally (10-1).

Race 11: $7,500 Claiming (six furlongs)

#9 Liam’s Blue Moon (7-2) has been defeated by narrow margins when second and third in his last two starts over this track and class level. A pure pacesetter, Liam’s Blue Moon is an obvious contender while sticking to the same conditions, though #8 Harley’s Charly (5-1) has run a bit faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale as of late, and #4 Alta Fox (6-1) beat Harley’s Charly in a slightly easier $7,500 claimer two starts back. Plus, since there’s a fair amount of speed in this field, #5 Modern Midas (10-1) and #6 Summer Ash (6-1) could be viable threats from off the pace.

• 50-cent Pick 5: 6 with 1,2,4 with 3,6,7,8 with 1,3,7,10 with 4,5,6,8,9 ($120)

Good luck!