Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $4,657 Super High 5 at Ellis Park

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, July 22 at Ellis Park and Presque Isle Downs, including a ticket for the $4,657 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Presque Isle Downs 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers at Presque Isle Downs (excluding show bets) on Mondays in June and July.
• Ellis Park 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Ellis Park every Monday from July 15 through Aug. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:26 p.m. ET)

Since 2019, trainer Brad Cox has compiled an excellent 9-for-28 (32%) record debuting juveniles in turf routes at Ellis Park. So let’s support Cox’s unraced two-year-old #2 Coffee Talk (3-1) on Monday.

A Godolphin homebred son of Medaglia d’Oro, Coffee Talk has put together a lengthy work tab highlighted by half a mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :48 1/5. Jockey Florent Geroux (a 23% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months) is named to ride, so there’s a lot to like about Coffee Talk.

Selections

• #2 Coffee Talk (3-1)
• #10 Mika (5-1)
• #5 Hard as Life (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Coffee Talk

Ellis Park: Race 8: Twin Bridges S. (six furlongs on dirt, 4:19 p.m. ET)

#1 Amaretti (3-1), a Godolphin homebred, has long shown flashes of talent for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Her career has been dotted with layoffs, but the five-year-old mare has recorded three wins and two seconds from seven starts.

Last time out, Amaretti survived a duel to win a six-furlong $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs by two lengths, earning a career-best 93 Brisnet Speed rating. She looks ready to make the step into stakes company under red-hot jockey Cristian Torres, a 28% winner at Ellis Park this meet.

Selections

• #1 Amaretti (3-1)
• #4 Your So Sillea (9-5)
• #6 Swall (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Amaretti

Presque Isle Downs: Race 7: Hard Spun S. (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 5:42 p.m. ET)

#2 Going Up (3-1) has yet to run farther than 6 1/2 furlongs, but his 3-for-6 record at Presque Isle Downs includes a pacesetting third-place finish against non-state-restricted competition in the Tom Ridge S. for three-year-olds. On that occasion, Going Up finished only a head behind runner-up Apollo Ten, who won a stakes in his next start.

Going Up subsequently set blazing fractions of :21.66 and 43.91 on his way to beating Pennsylvania-bred older horses by 2 1/4 lengths in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Presque Isle. Going Up has the pedigree to stretch out over one mile, so if he shakes loose on an easy lead while once again facing Pennsylvania-bred older horses in the Hard Spun, he’ll be a threat to take this field all the way on the front end.

#4 Nice Ace (5-1), who has won the last two editions of the Hard Spun, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Going Up (3-1)
• #4 Nice Ace (5-1)
• #6 Extrasexybigdaddee (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Going Up
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 4
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $4,657 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

Winning a share of Monday’s $4,657 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis Park doesn’t appear too difficult.

The prize pool is on the table in Race 1, a $10,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt. A nine-horse field has turned out, but morning line favorite #1 Grace Given (9-5) looks like a potential standout for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

Grace Given has performed well in her last three starts against tougher competition. After running second and third in $20,000 maiden claimers at Keeneland and Churchill Downs, she stepped up in class for a $30,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park and finished fifth in a 10-horse field. Those three efforts yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 66, 77, and 67, which stack up well against Monday’s field.

Descending into a $10,000 maiden claimer should make Grace Given tough to beat. Asmussen wins at a 23% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, and he’s won at a 24% rate when teaming up with jockey Erik Asmussen over the past two months, so we recommend taking a stand and keying Grace Given on top in the Super High 5.

Who should we use underneath? Certainly we have to consider #7 Lady Robo (7-2), runner-up in a $10,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs last month. #6 American Splendor (3-1) could factor too, after finishing a decent fifth in a $16,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Ellis turf. And while #5 Vivis in Front (15-1) wasn’t in great form when last seen competing on Tapeta, she finished third in a $25,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis last fall and may improve while returning to dirt. The same goes for #4 Kiss Me Katie (6-1), whose best effort to date—a fourth in a $30,000 maiden claimer—came in her lone start on dirt.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 4,6,7 with 4,5,6,7 with 4,5,6,7,8 with 4,5,6,7,8 ($54)

Good luck!