Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $4,761 Pick 5 at Mahoning

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Dec. 18 at Mahoning Valley, including a ticket for the $4,761 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points at Zia Park: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Zia Park on Mondays and Tuesdays through Dec. 19.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $7,500 Claiming (six furlongs, 12:45 p.m. ET)

#2 Wilderzar (9-2) is a logical contender after finishing second in his last three starts against $10,000 and $7,500 maiden claiming competition at Mahoning Valley. But Wilderzar’s 20-0-6-3 lifetime record suggests he’s often content to settle for a minor award rather than vie for victory.

Let’s try to beat Wilderzar with #6 Akito (3-1). Conditioned by hot trainer Anthony Farrior (a 35% winner at Mahoning this meet), Akito debuted with a solid third-place finish in a $12,500 maiden claimer at Charles Town. That form was flattered when runner-up Mo Eh Hennessy returned to win his next start against similar competition.

We’ll bet Akito to win and key him over Wilderzar in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #6 Akito (3-1)
• #2 Wilderzar (9-2)
• #1 Mr Mayhem (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Akito
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 2
  Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 2: Allowance (six furlongs, 1:12 p.m. ET)

#7 Hartful Hope (7-2) hasn’t missed the trifecta in her last five starts and has posted sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 84, 83, and 80 in her last three dirt races, all against allowance competition. The three-year-old filly has tactical speed but is also tractable, setting the stage for a perfect trip.

A win bet is in order, along with a trifecta using #5 Lewd (5-1), #4 Fabricate (5-2), and #2 Mimi’s Golden Ring (4-1) for the minor awards.

Selections

• #7 Hartful Hope (7-2)
• #5 Lewd (5-1)
• #4 Fabricate (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #7 Hartful Hope
• $2.50 Trifecta: 7 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 ($15)
  Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 2:08 p.m. ET)

#2 Chiron (3-1) is the fastest horse in this field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. He’s been competing in maiden special weights on the Kentucky circuit while throwing down Brisnet Speed ratings of 80, 84, 69, 80, 86, 78, and 77 in his last seven starts.

Chiron has placed in three of his seven starts racing one mile and should find the competition easier at Mahoning Valley, setting the stage for a breakthrough victory. #8 Time the Avenger (5-2), an Anthony Farrior trainee coming off a runner-up finish in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Charles Town, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Chiron (3-1)
• #8 Time the Avenger (5-2)
• #6 Shortly (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Chiron
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 8
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $4,761 Pick 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

No one managed to solve the $1 Pick 5 at Mahoning Valley last Thursday, which means the new racing week kicks off with a non-jackpot Pick 5 carryover worth $4,761 up for grabs.

As far as difficulty goes, we’d rate Monday’s sequence as a medium. The five races contain 42 horses (averaging 8.4 per race), which works out to 40,320 possible outcomes. The $1 minimum bet amount makes the sequence more expensive to play compared to the 50-cent Pick 5s found at many tracks, but we’ll do our best with the cards we’ve been dealt.

For starters, we’ll take a stand singling #6 Akito (3-1) in Race 1. He still has upside while making his second start, and we hesitate to double the cost of our tickets by including the 0-for-20 #2 Wilderzar (9-2) as backup.

In Race 2, #7 Hartful Hope (7-2) is the filly to beat, but in her last two starts she’s been closely pursued by #5 Lewd (5-1). If Heartful Hope sticks too close to a strong pace set by #2 Mimi’s Golden Ring (4-1) and perhaps #1 Chargina (15-1), you can make a case for Lewd to turn the tables at a nice price.

Race 3 is a tricky $6,500 claimer for Ohio-bred fillies and mares who haven’t won a race since June 18. The 5 1/2-furlong sprint features logical favorites in the form of #1 Grizabella (5-2) and #9 Barefoot Beach (3-1), who exit runner-up finishes against $6,500 claiming competition at Mahoning. But Grizabella hasn’t run since March and Barefoot Beach has been settling for minor awards a lot as of late, so the class-dropping #8 Lady Abril (4-1) and #7 Bay Magic (15-1) have upset potential.

In Race 4, we’ll single the Brisnet Speed rating standout #2 Chiron (3-1). This leaves us to sort through Race 5, a $4,000 claimer for horses who haven’t won two races in the last year. The 5 1/2-furlong sprint features many viable contenders among its 10 entries, so we’ll spread deep and cover our bases with #1 Explosive Humour (7-2), #3 Lock On (5-1), #6 Uhavetobekittenme (10-1), #7 Rescue Five (6-1), #8 Suddenly Seductive (9-2), #9 Honor Life (8-1).

• $1 Pick 5: 6 with 5,7 with 1,7,8,9 with 2 with 1,3,6,7,8,9 ($48)

Good luck!