Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 7-2 shot in the Blue Ribbon

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, March 18 at Mahoning Valley, Will Rogers Downs, and Turf Paradise, including a 7-2 shot in the Blue Ribbon S.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: Allowance (six furlongs, 2:18 p.m. ET)

#1 Gunner Gabriel (6-5) has compiled a 4-2-1-1 record over this track and distance. He was particularly sharp in the OTBO Sales Graduate Race S. on March 4, dueling for the lead before taking over to dominate by 6 1/4 lengths.

That runaway victory yielded an 86 Brisnet Speed rating that towers over Monday’s allowance field. None of Gunner Gabriel’s rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 77, a number Gunner Gabriel has matched or exceeded in each of his last three starts.

Let’s bet Gunner Gabriel on top of a cold exacta using #3 Who Da Boss (4-1) for second place. The latter has been freshened since winning a six-furlong allowance at Mahoning last year, and the time off shouldn’t be a concern since trainer Robert Gorham wins at a 31% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Selections

• #1 Gunner Gabriel (6-5)
• #3 Who Da Boss (4-1)
• #4 Leroyisalagniappe (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 3

Will Rogers Downs: Race 7: Blue Ribbon S. (six furlongs, 4:57 p.m. ET)

#5 Kiss and Tell (7-2) showed promise racing against Oklahoma-breds at Remington Park last fall. She was much the best when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight, sweeping from a few lengths off the pace to win by 3 1/4 lengths, and she followed up with a pace-tracking third-place finish in the Oklahoma Classics Lassie S.

Kiss and Tell is sticking to the Oklahoma-bred ranks for the Blue Ribbon. She enters off a promising series of workouts at Will Rogers Downs, including a bullet three furlongs in :35 2/5, and should be ready to fire a competitive shot in her 2024 debut.

Let’s place a win bet on Kiss and Tell.

Selections

• #5 Kiss and Tell (7-2)
• #7 Lady Zephyr (3-1)
• #2 Red Rose Cafe (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Kiss and Tell

Turf Paradise: Race 5: ATBA Three Year Old Sales Final S. (six furlongs, 5:53 p.m. ET)

#1 Track Robber (8-1) has a chance to surprise on debut. The son of Cat Burglar has put together a sharp work tab at Turf Paradise capped off by a pair of half-mile workouts (one from the starting gate) in :47 4/5.

Trainer Esteban Martinez has been hot at Turf Paradise this meet, going 5-for-20 (25%), and Martinez’s record saddling first-time starters at Turf Paradise since 2019 stands at a respectable 12-2-4-0 (17% wins, 50% in-the-money). At 8-1, Track Robber is worth betting to win and playing in the exacta with #10 Surroundedbyangels (3-1), who is dropping in class out of the Sunland Park Derby (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Selections

• #1 Track Robber (8-1)
• #10 Surroundedbyangels (3-1)
• #5 U Can Do U (4-1)

Wagers

• $14 to win on #1 Track Robber
• $12 Exacta: 10 with 1
• $4 Exacta: 1 with 10
  Total: $30

Good luck!