Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 8-1 in Finger Lakes stakes

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Nov. 11 at Mahoning Valley and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with an 8-1 longshot to play in the $3,045 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 12:45 p.m. ET)

#3 Bigtonten (2-1) is an unraced son of Echo Town, who sires 19% winners from first-time starters. Bigtonten has put together an encouraging work tab for red-hot trainer Anthony Farrior, including a bullet half-mile from the Charles Town starting gate in :48 1/5. Farrior wins at a 24% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights and has gone 5-for-13 (38%) at Mahoning Valley this meet.

Throw in the presence of jockey Erik Barbaran (a 57% winner teaming up with Farrior over the last two months), and Bigtonten is worthy of a win bet. We’ll also key him over fellow first-time starter #2 All My Life (5-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Bigtonten (2-1)
• #2 All My Life (5-2)
• #6 Improbable First (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Bigtonten
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 2
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:47 p.m. ET)

#4 Mackadoo (8-5) looks like the horse to beat for hot trainer Greg Foley, who has gone 3-for-13 (23%) at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. After rallying to finish third by one length in his debut over this track, distance, and class level, Mackadoo threw down a 65 Brisnet Speed rating when fifth in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs.

None of Mackadoo’s rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating as high as 65, so let’s single the bay colt to start a double wager.

Selections

• #4 Mackadoo (8-5)
• #3 Imminent Forecast (6-1)
• #2 Gin and Whiskey (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 4 with 5

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 9: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 5:18 p.m. ET)

#5 Bishops Bay (5-2) hasn’t missed the exacta in four starts for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox. Along the way he’s kept good company, finishing second in the Peter Pan (G3) to next-out Belmont (G1) winner Arcangelo and second in the Ohio Derby (G3) to Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up Two Phil’s.

Bishops Bay hasn’t run since June 2023, but he’s put together a strong work tab in preparation for his return, highlighted by three bullet workouts since Oct. 10. Hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 33% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months) retains the mount, stamping Bishops Bay as the horse to beat in his comeback.

We’ll single Bishops Bay to conclude our double wager, then bet him to win for good measure.

Selections

• #5 Bishops Bay (5-2)
• #7 Silver Heist (5-1)
• #10 Latigo (8-5)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #5 Bishops Bay

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $3,045 Pick 6 carryover (1:16 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Finger Lakes kicks off on Monday with a $3,045 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

Assembling a winning ticket won’t be easy. Each of the six races has drawn at least eight horses, and the six-race sequence contains 53 horses in total (averaging about 8.8 per race), which works out to 460,800 possible Pick 6 outcomes before scratches.

The feature event in the sequence is Race 8, the $45,000 Shesastonecoldfox S. for two-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt. A couple of local runners are favored, but neither appears unbeatable.

The top choice on the morning line is #1 Idyll Gossip (5-2), a gate-to-wire maiden special weight winner sprinting five furlongs at Finger Lakes. That effort yielded a sharp 76 Brisnet Speed rating, but Idyll Gossip hasn’t run as fast in two subsequent starts against stakes competition at Finger Lakes. Facing New York-bred fillies in the Lady Finger S., she ran third by 5 1/2 lengths. Against New York-breds of both genders in the New York Breeders’ Futurity, she finished a distant sixth.

#8 April Storm (3-1) is the other short-priced contender after dominating her debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Finger Lakes by eight lengths. But that victory yielded a modest 66 Brisnet Speed rating, and April Storm will need to run a bit faster to beat stakes rivals in the Shesastonecoldfox.

So why not consider the undefeated #6 Brooklyn Rhapsody (8-1) as a live longshot? The daughter of Florida Derby (G1) winner Audible has gone 2-for-2 at Delaware Park. First she rallied from midfield to win a 5 1/2-furlong $16,000 maiden claimer with a 65 Brisnet Speed rating. Then she employed pace-pressing tactics to win a six-furlong $16,000 claimer with a 79 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in the Shesastonecoldfox field.

The fact Brooklyn Rhapsody is stepping up from the claiming ranks into a stakes should ensure that she starts at enticing odds, yet Brisnet Speed ratings suggest she’s a great fit for the Shesastonecoldfox. Don’t leave this 8-1 longshot off your Pick 6 tickets—she’s our top choice and is worthy of a win bet for good measure.

• Race 8, $25 to win on #6 Brooklyn Rhapsody

Good luck!