Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Bois Blanc looks live at 8-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Oct. 28 at Mahoning Valley and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with analysis of Pick 5 and Pick 6 carryovers at Finger Lakes and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Horseshoe Indianapolis 25% Bankroll Cashback: Wager your entire starting bankroll ($40) during the duration of the $80 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder tournament on Monday to receive 25% cash back ($10).

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:50 p.m. ET)

A couple of first-time starters are appealing in this maiden sprint for Ohio-bred juveniles.

#7 Kozy K (3-1) is a son of Tenkoz, who is siring 20% winners from first-time starters. Kozy K recently breezed a solid half-mile from the Mahoning Valley starting gate in :49 2/5 and looks ready to challenge on debut for trainer Larry Smith, a 24% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

#9 Drill City (5-1) hails from the barn of Shane Meyers, who wins at an even loftier 43% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights. A lengthy work tab highlighted by a quartet of five-furlong exercises should have Drill City fit for a competitive debut.

Let’s box Kozy K and Drill City in the exacta, then use them to start a double wager.

Selections

• #7 Kozy K (3-1)
• #9 Drill City (5-1)
• #1 So That’s That (5-2)

Wagers

• $8 Exacta: box 7,9 ($16)
• $7 Double: 7,9 with 6 ($14)
  Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:18 p.m. ET)

#6 Professor Nick (8-5) has cracked the trifecta in four straight starts sprinting over this class level at Thistledown. He brings tactical speed to the table and may appreciate switching to Mahoning Valley, where speed has performed well to start the meet.

Let’s single Professor Nick to conclude our double wager, then play him over #5 El Faite (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Professor Nick (8-5)
• #5 El Faite (5-2)
• #2 Duo (6-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 6 with 5

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#6 Bois Blanc (8-1) has cracked the trifecta in a couple of maiden special weights sprinting on turf at Keeneland and Ellis Park. She’s shown serious early speed in her last two starts on the Kentucky circuit and may benefit from taking her game on the road to Horseshoe Indianapolis, where the competition tends to be a bit easier.

Since Bois Blanc is the fastest entrant in Monday’s field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, she’s worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #6 Bois Blanc (8-1)
• #5 Oklahoma Logic (3-1)
• #1 Shirley Ann (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Bois Blanc

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $1,851 Pick 6 carryover (1:58 p.m. ET)
Finger Lakes, Race 4: $9,425 Pick 5 carryover (2:27 p.m. ET)

It’s common for the $1 Pick 6 at Finger Lakes to toss up carryovers; there’s one worth $1,851 available to chase on Monday.

Far less often, the 50-cent Pick 5 at Finger Lakes turns up a carryover. The wager went unsolved last Wednesday, triggering an enticing $9,425 carryover into Monday’s card.

The Pick 5 and Pick 6 sequences overlap, so bettors who handicap one are pretty much ready to play the other as well.

With that in mind, let us recommend a midrange longshot to use in race 4, the opening leg of the Pick 5 and the second leg of the Pick 6. #7 A Knight’s Courage (6-1), the co-fifth choice in a six-furlong maiden special weight, is technically stepping up in class out of $25,000 and $30,000 maiden claimers restricted to New York-breds.

But those maiden claimers took place at Aqueduct on the New York Racing Association circuit, where the competition is tougher than at Finger Lakes. Brisnet Speed ratings suggest A Knight’s Courage is a fine fit for Monday’s field; it’s arguably more of a lateral class move than a shift up or down.

Setting class questions aside, there’s a lot to like about A Knight’s Courage’s record. He’s hit the board in three of his last four starts and showed tactical speed in all of those contests. And while he hasn’t run since January, trainer Paul Barrow wins at a lofty 21% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and a lengthy work tab highlighted by a bullet five furlongs in 1:03 1/5 at Finger Lakes should have A Knight’s Courage fit for a competitive comeback.

Throw in the fact A Knight’s Courage is adding Lasix and making his first start as a gelding, and there are reasons to believe he can move forward meaningfully in his return. Don’t leave this speedy three-year-old off your Pick 5 and Pick 6 tickets; if he wins at 6-1, he’ll boost the prospective payoffs.

Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 5: $28,179 Pick 5 carryover (4:15 p.m. ET)

Monday’s 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis boasts a large $28,179 carryover.

Need a single to build tickets around? Try #7 Missy Bee (3-1) in race 5, a $15,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races (excluding certain Indiana-bred races), otherwise known as an “N3X” claimer.

Missy Bee looks like a perfect fit for this one-mile turf test. She’s been sharp in two recent starts over this course and distance. Two starts back, she won a $20,000 N2X claimer. Last time out, she finished second by half a length in a $20,000 N3X claimer. Dropping down to the $15,000 level should be all Missy Bee needs to rally and win under jockey Joseph Ramos, who has won with 30% of his turf mounts this year.

Good luck!