Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: City Cocktails can win at 8-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Nov. 4 at Mahoning Valley and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along horses to single in Pick 5 and Pick 6 carryovers at Finger Lakes.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $4,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 12:45 p.m. ET)

#4 Chess Not Checkers (7-5) has cracked the trifecta in three straight $5,000 claimers sprinting at Thistledown. Her form has improved significantly since cutting back from routes to sprints, and it’s worth noting she hasn’t missed the top three in five career starts sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs.

Chess Not Checkers should be tough to beat while dropping down to the $4,000 level, so let’s key her on top of exacta and trifecta tickets using #3 Blazing Zenna (2-1) and #5 General Ginny (5-2) underneath.

Selections

• #4 Chess Not Checkers (7-5)
• #3 Blazing Zenna (2-1)
• #5 General Ginny (5-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 4 with 3,5 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 4 with 3,5 with 3,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#8 City Cocktails (8-1) misfired in a recent $30,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Churchill Downs. But she’d previously run okay in a couple of maiden special weights on turf, finishing sixth at Ellis Park and fourth at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Returning to Horseshoe Indianapolis for a $40,000 maiden claimer can put City Cocktails in contention for trainer Eddie Kenneally, a 20% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. At 8-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 City Cocktails (8-1)
• #11 Stubby (6-5)
• #5 Kate Wins (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 City Cocktails

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 5:16 p.m. ET)

#9 Ready as Ever (9-2) has been facing tougher competition at Saratoga and Churchill Downs. He ran particularly well in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga two starts back, rallying from far back to finish third with an 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Monday’s conditions is only 79, so Ready as Ever has already run fast enough to win a race like this. Throw in the fact Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has gone 2-for-5 (40%) at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet, and Ready as Ever is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #9 Ready as Ever (9-2)
• #2 Bruhn (6-1)
• #5 Brewing (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Ready as Ever

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $9,696 Pick 6 carryover (1:16 p.m. ET)
Finger Lakes, Race 4: $12,906 Pick 5 carryover (1:44 p.m. ET)

Finger Lakes isn’t part of the New York Racing Association circuit, and it doesn’t draw as much attention from bettors as Aqueduct or Saratoga. But it’s the star of the New York show this Monday thanks to a pair of non-jackpot carryovers.

The 50-cent Pick 5 prize pool stands at a healthy $12,906, while the carryover for the $1 Pick 6 is only a little smaller at $9,696.

Pick 6 bettors can kick off their tickets with a logical single in Race 3, a maiden special weight taking place over 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Four-year-old gelding #5 Tiz Wicked Strong (1-1) is a heavy morning line favorite after finishing second in back-to-back maiden special weights running long over the synthetic Tapeta track at Presque Isle Downs.

Tiz Wicked Strong is a capable campaigner on synthetic, but he’s arguably even better on dirt. He earned strong Brisnet Speed ratings in the 82-88 range while competing in maiden special weights at Ellis Park and Churchill Downs last year.

Those numbers top the competition at Finger Lakes; none of his rivals have ever earned a number higher than 80. Getting back to dirt ought to send Tiz Wicked Strong straight to the winner’s circle for trainer Philip Antonacci, who has gone 1-for-1 at Finger Lakes this meet.

Unfortunately, the Pick 5 doesn’t start until Race 4, so Pick 5 players seeking a single will have to look elsewhere. One possibility is #1A Tasty Wave (5-2) in Race 8, a $5,000 claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt.

Tasty Wave has cracked the trifecta in three straight sprints at Finger Lakes, even winning a $5,000 claimer by three lengths. Along the way, she’s earned competitive Brisnet Speed ratings of 73, 79, and 74. All of those numbers match or exceed the par winning Brisnet Speed rating (73) for Monday’s conditions.

Tasty Wave has lots of early speed and figures to work out a perfect trip in this largely paceless field. As a result, she’s a compelling single to conclude the Pick 5, and also the Pick 6.

Good luck!