Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Columbus Day win bets

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Oct. 14 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Santa Anita, along with a horse to single in the $3,827 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

This maiden special weight for Indiana-bred juveniles hasn’t drawn the toughest field, so #8 Trouble Or Nothin (8-1) won’t have to be a superstar to win on debut.

Trouble Or Nothin breezed a decent half-mile from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate in :49 2/5 last month and is trained by Robert Gorham, a 12% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights. There are reasons to believe Trouble Or Nothin can outrun his 8-1 morning-line odds, so let’s try a win bet on this midrange longshot.

Selections

• #8 Trouble Or Nothin (8-1)
• #6 City Prayers (3-1)
• #2 Mi Sargento (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Trouble Or Nothin

Santa Anita: Race 7: Swingtime S. (one mile on turf, 7 p.m. ET)

#4 Queen of the Mud (3-1) is shipping from the East Coast after finishing second in three straight stakes sprinting on turf and Tapeta. Stretching out in distance while taking her game on the road to California might be just what Queen of the Mud needs to shine for trainer Graham Motion, a 22% winner with horses running long for the first time.

Throw in the fact Queen of the Mud is picking up hot jockey Juan Hernandez (a 20% winner at Santa Anita this meet), and a win bet is in order. We’ll also play a small exacta using #1 Royal Charter (6-1) for second place.

Selections

• #4 Queen of the Mud (3-1)
• #1 Royal Charter (6-1)
• #6 Moment’s Pleasure (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Queen of the Mud
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 1
  Total: $25

Santa Anita: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 7:30 p.m. ET)

#6 Zabo (6-1) never factored in his debut racing one mile over the Del Mar turf course, finishing a distant sixth. But the son of Triple Crown winner Justify has turned in sharp workouts since then (including half a mile in :46 4/5 at Santa Anita) and may appreciate switching to dirt for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

It’s not every day you can get 6-1 backing a Baffert-trained juvenile in a maiden special weight on dirt, so let’s bet Zabo to win and play him over #2 Day and Age (3-1) in the exacta for good measure.

Selections

• #6 Zabo (6-1)
• #2 Day and Age (3-1)
• #3 Brother Tony (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Zabo
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 2
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $3,827 Pick 6 carryover (1:58 p.m. ET)

Finger Lakes is celebrating Columbus Day with a $3,827 non-jackpot carryover in their $1 Pick 6.

Planning to pursue the prize pool, but not sure where to begin with assembling your tickets? Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered with a viable single in race 6, a maiden special weight taking place over 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Nine horses have entered, but #5 War Stride (5-2) looks like a standout.

War Stride has spent his last four starts competing in maiden special weights at Aqueduct, where the competition is tougher. He’s finished third, fourth, second, and seventh in sprints over distances from six to 6 1/2 furlongs, and along the way he’s earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 77, 84, 74, and 83.

Those two 80+ numbers are noteworthy because none of War Stride’s Finger Lakes rivals have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 80, and only one has posted a number higher than 74. That one is #6 Raleigh St. Clair (7-2), who posted an 80 when second in a $75,000 maiden claimer at Aqueduct in March. But the three-year-old gelding subsequently regressed to a 72 when finishing second in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Finger Lakes last month.

War Stride has been freshened since January by trainer George Weaver, who wins at an excellent 20% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. War Stride has also been gelded, opening the door for improvement. A sharp work tab over the Saratoga training track (including a bullet half-mile in :48) suggests War Stride is sitting on a big comeback under hot jockey Keiber Coa, a 26% winner at Finger Lakes this meet.

In short, what’s not to like? It’s easy to understand why War Stride is a Pick 6 single worth building tickets around.

Good luck!