Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Ellis Park’s $17,254 Pick 6 mandatory payout

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Aug. 26 at Ellis Park and Parx Racing, including a single for the mandatory payout of Ellis Park’s $17,254 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Ellis Park 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Ellis Park every Monday from July 15 through Aug. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 1:49 p.m. ET)

#2 Sunday Disruptor (9-2) ran reasonably well in her debut sprinting six furlongs over this track and class level, overcoming a slow start to finish fifth by 2 1/2 lengths in a 12-horse field. That effort yielded a respectable 78 Brisnet Speed rating, higher than the par winning number (76) for Monday’s conditions.

Trainer Kenny McPeek wins at a 17% rate with horses running long for the first time, and Sunday Disruptor’s pedigree suggests she’ll benefit from stretching out over one mile; her dam, Pocket Gift, previously foaled the stakes-winning route racer Pass the Plate.

Let’s bet Sunday Disruptor to win.

Selections

• #2 Sunday Disruptor (9-2)
• #1 Ghosttapper (4-1)
• #6 Jeweled Destiny (9-5)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Sunday Disruptor

Parx Racing: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:59 p.m. ET)

#1 Star Man Bob (5-1) seems overpriced at his morning line odds, and for one simple reason: since 2021, trainer Robert Reid Jr. has gone 13-for-42 (31%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Parx Racing.

There are other reasons to like Star Man Bob, including the fact he’ll be ridden by Jose Lezcano, who has gone 4-for-6 (67%) riding at Parx this year. But the trainer stat alone is reason enough to support Star Man Bob with a win bet.

Selections

• #1 Star Man Bob (5-1)
• #4 Dansk (8-1)
• #6 Day of Days (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Star Man Bob

Ellis Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 3:52 p.m. ET)

#6 Tickled Quist (5-1), a son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist out of a mare by Preakness (G1) hero Shackleford, has put together a promising series of workouts at Ellis Park. Since breezing a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :48 on July 13, he’s posted five straight five-furlong workouts.

Those exercises should have Tickled Quist fit to race one mile on debut. Trainer Brad Cox wins at a lofty 28% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther, and hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 21% winner at Ellis Park this meet) is named to ride, so Tickled Quist is worthy of a win bet.

We’ll also play Tickled Quist on top of a small exacta using the experienced #9 Morlock (7-2) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Tickled Quist (5-1)
• #9 Morlock (7-2)
• #7 Hamlin (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Tickled Quist
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 9
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 4: $17,254 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:21 p.m. ET)

The 20-cent Dade Park Pick 6 at Ellis Park is normally a jackpot-style wager. But on Monday (closing day of the 2024 meet), the $17,254 carryover will be paid out in mandatory fashion to all winning bettors, no unique winning ticket required.

Bettors searching for a single to build tickets around might have initially looked to Race 8, the $150,000 Ellis Park Turf S. for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. The feature event of the afternoon looks like a perfect opportunity for multiple graded stakes winner #5 Heavenly Sunday (4-5) to secure her first win of 2024, but unfortunately she and #6 Excellent Question (10-1) are early scratches. The seven remaining entrants are a competitive group, and spreading deep may be necessary to survive in the Pick 6.

The good news is, a different but no less viable single candidate can be found in Race 9, a $16,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf. The conditions should be perfect for morning line favorite #7 She’s So Malice (5-2), a four-year-old filly making her second career start.

She’s So Malice debuted in a $30,000 maiden claimer over this course and distance on July 27. She got off to a poor start and trailed the 10-horse field for half a mile, but down the homestretch she launched a strong rally to get up and finish second by 1 3/4 lengths. The Brisnet Speed rating she received (75) tops the par winning number (74) for Monday’s conditions.

Dropping in class for a $16,000 maiden claimer should send She’s So Malice to the winner’s circle, especially if she gets off to a sharper start while adding blinkers. Hot trainer Mike Maker has won with 20% of his Ellis Park starters this meet, and jockey Jamie Torres has gone 6-for-15 (40%) teaming up with Maker over the last two months, so there are also positive trainer and jockey stats in She’s So Malice’s corner.

For all these reasons, singling She’s So Malice looks like a great place to start when assembling Pick 6 tickets. Good luck!