Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Exacta in the Randolph D. Rouse Memorial

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Aug. 12 at Colonial Downs and Ellis Park, including price horses to play in the $6,305 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Ellis Park 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Ellis Park every Monday from July 15 through Aug. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 3: Randolph D. Rouse Memorial S. (2 1/4 miles over national fences on turf, 12:55 p.m. ET)

After going 1-for-5 on the flat, #1 Haint Blue (3-1) proved much the best in a 2 1/8-mile maiden special weight over fences at Aiken, dominating by 8 1/4 lengths over #7 Exculpate (6-1), who returned to place in a stakes.

Haint Blue has also placed against stakes company. Her second start over fences yielded a runner-up finish against males in the Speedy Smithwick Memorial S. at Great Meadow. She’s returning to the filly and mare ranks for the Randolph D. Rouse Memorial and looks like the runner to beat, so let’s bet Haint Blue to win and key her over Exculpate and #3 My Forever Annie (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Haint Blue (3-1)
• #7 Exculpate (6-1)
• #3 My Forever Annie (7-2)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #1 Haint Blue
• $7 Exacta: 1 with 3,7 ($14)
  Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 1:40 p.m. ET)

Trainer Carlos Munoz has done well debuting juveniles on dirt at Colonial Downs this year, going 2-for-5 (40%). Perhaps he can keep that hot streak going with #4 Improbable Me (6-1).

A son of juvenile Grade 1 winner Improbable, Improbable Me has put together an encouraging work tab capped off by a pair of half-mile workouts in :48 1/5 at Colonial Downs. Jockey Gavin Ashton has won at an 18% rate teaming up with Munoz over the last two months, so at 6-1 a win bet on Improbable Me is warranted.

Selections

• #4 Improbable Me (6-1)
• #7 Sackett (5-2)
• #5 Freddy Boy (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Improbable Me

Ellis Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:52 p.m. ET)

Unraced juvenile #8 She’s All Charm (7-2) has shown serious speed in the mornings at Turfway Park, working bullet half-miles from the starting gate in :46 4/5 and :46 3/5. Trainer Eoin Harty has already saddled one debut-winning juvenile at Ellis Park this meet, and that runner—First Resort—likewise entered off fast workouts at Turfway.

As a daughter of More Than Ready (who sires 13% winners on turf) out of Too Charming (winner of the Tropical Park Oaks on turf), She’s All Charm has the pedigree to shine while debuting over the Ellis Park lawn. Let’s bet She’s All Charm to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #8 She’s All Charm (7-2)
• #1 Don’t Call Me Babe (3-1)
• #10 Miss Lonelle (15-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 She’s All Charm

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $6,305 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

When Pigalle sprang a 23-1 surprise in Sunday’s $175,000 Groupie Doll S. at Ellis Park, not a single bettor was left with a winning Super High 5 ticket. As a result, the $1 wager boasts a $6,305 carryover heading into Race 1 on Monday.

Race 1 is a $30,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt. An 11-horse field has turned out, so there are 55,440 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

The morning line favorite is #6 Peanut Gallery (3-1), and there are certainly things to like about her chances. The daughter of Bernardini debuted in a maiden special weight racing one mile over a muddy track at Ellis Park and showed little while finishing 10th by a double-digit margin. But trainer Brad Cox wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters and at a 34% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, so those are a couple of powerful trainer angles. Cutting back in distance and racing over a fast track could also put Peanut Gallery in the hunt under hot jockey Florent Geroux, a 26% winner at Ellis Park this meet and a 27% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

Still, Peanut Gallery showed so little on debut that it’s tempting to try to beat her with fillies offering better odds. #5 Island Ride (4-1) is an obvious candidate; while she tired to finish ninth in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer over the Ellis Park turf course last month, her first two starts on dirt yielded top-four finishes in maiden special weights at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. Island Ride has run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale than Peanut Gallery and has every chance to win while returning to dirt.

#4 Take Wings (10-1) is also compelling at a much larger price. The unraced filly has put together sharp workouts at Ellis Park (including half a mile from the starting gate in :47 3/5) for trainer Brian Lynch, a 21% winner at Ellis this meet. Lynch wins at a 25% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, so dismiss Take Wings at your own risk.

We recommend trying to beat Peanut Gallery in the Super High 5, relegating her to the underneath slots of your tickets while playing Island Ride and Take Wings on top.

Good luck!