Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Fair Grounds $1,746 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Dec. 16 at Zia Park and Fair Grounds, including a single for the $1,746 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Zia Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:05 p.m. ET)

#7 Bijou Bear (7-2) is a newcomer to Zia Park. He’s finished second in his last two starts against Oklahoma-bred maiden special weight company at Remington Park, earning back-to-back 75 Brisnet Speed ratings.

Those numbers stack up well against Monday’s field, so rather than attempt to split the evenly matched local runners, let’s try betting Bijou Bear to win.

Selections

• #7 Bijou Bear (7-2)
• #2 Bertani (9-5)
• #1 Apuro (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Bijou Bear

Fair Grounds: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (about 1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#5 Viva Glam (3-1) tired from a pace-tracking position to finish fourth in her debut racing 1 1/16 miles over the Churchill Downs dirt. But as a daughter of Oscar Performance—who sires 18% winners from first-time turf starters—Viva Glam has the pedigree to shine while trying grass.

Viva Glam is adding Lasix and picking up red-hot jockey Jose Ortiz, so there are plenty of reasons to believe she can improve sharply in her second start. Let’s bet her to win and play her over #6 Fionn (5-2) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #5 Viva Glam (3-1)
• #6 Fionn (5-2)
• #1 Dancetheniteaway (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Viva Glam
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 6
  Total: $30

Zia Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:57 p.m. ET)

#10 Myfavoriteholiday (2-1) has put together an encouraging work tab for trainer Dallas Barton, a 29% winner at Zia Park this meet and an 18% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

As a daughter of champion juvenile Uncle Mo—who sires 14% winners from first-time starters—Myfavoriteholiday has the potential to shine from an early age. Let’s bet her to win.

Selections

• #10 Myfavoriteholiday (2-1)
• #5 Don’t Be Shy Say Hi (15-1)
• #2 Channel Launch (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #10 Myfavoriteholiday

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $1,746 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

No one solved the $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds on Sunday, and since the New Orleans oval is racing on Monday, bettors can start the new week by chasing a $1,746 Pick 6 carryover.

The six-race sequence gets started in Race 3, the above-mentioned maiden special weight in which #5 Viva Glam (3-1) is our top choice. We’re confident she’ll deliver a strong run while offering the best value for a win bet, but Pick 6 bettors might not want to stand alone with Viva Glam in her turf debut.

For backup, include #6 Fionn (5-2). The Brad Cox-trained filly rallied strongly into a slow early/fast late race shape to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths when debuting in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course. Cox wins at a 26% rate with second-time starters, and Fionn is adding Lasix, a 34% winning move for Cox. All signs suggest Fionn is sitting on a competitive performance.

If it’s a Pick 6 single you’re searching for, check out Race 7, a $100,000 allowance optional claimer for two-year-olds sprinting about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. The field hasn’t come up overly deep, so we’ll favor #3 Star’s Image (9-5), who wired a 5 1/2-furlong turf maiden special weight at Fair Grounds last month.

That effort earned Star’s Image an 81 Brisnet Speed rating equal to the par winning number for Monday’s conditions. Trainer Larry Rivelli has been on fire at Fair Grounds this meet, going 5-for-12 (42%) so far, and his 27% success rate with last-out maiden winners bodes well for Star’s Image.

The other key contenders have obstacles to overcome. #5 Corman (5-2) is shipping in from Horseshoe Indianapolis and must improve upon his career-best 70 Brisnet Speed rating. #4 Innova (4-1) has yet to race on turf. #6 Just Keep Looking (5-1) has misfired in his last two starts, including one over Monday’s course and class level.

As a result, Star’s Image looks like a trustworthy single in the penultimate leg of the Pick 6.

Good luck!