Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Finger Lakes $1,471 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Sept. 9 at Thistledown and Presque Isle Downs, along with a single for the $1,471 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on single-horse win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any of the four final races each race day at Assiniboia Downs from Sept. 9-24.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Thistledown: Race 5: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:50 p.m. ET)

With a 17-0-3-5 lifetime record, #3 Formyboys (9-5) isn’t exactly a winning machine. But the four-year-old gelding has cracked the trifecta in each of his last five starts, including four at this $12,500 maiden claiming class level.

Formyboys has already defeated four of the five rivals he’ll face on Monday, so he appears to have found the perfect spot to secure a breakthrough victory. Let’s single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #3 Formyboys (9-5)
• #5 Hidden Heart (10-1)
• #1 Vernon’s Best (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 3 with 4

Thistledown: Race 6: $16,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:20 p.m. ET)

#4 Sammy and Shorty (9-5) hasn’t missed the trifecta in 15 starts. He’s run well on many occasions at the $16,000 claiming level, even wiring a 5 1/2-furlong contest at Thistledown on July 17 with a career-best 87 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Sammy and Shorty’s Monday rivals have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 81, so a peak or even typical performance from Sammy and Shorty should be sufficient to secure victory. Let’s single him to conclude our double wager and throw in a win bet for good measure.

Selections

• #4 Sammy and Shorty (9-5)
• #2 Condemnation (2-1)
• #1 Run Rocky (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4

Presque Isle Downs: Race 6: $6,250 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#5 Youmustbea Weasley (5-2) often settles for second or third place, as indicated by his 31-2-8-9 record at Presque Isle Downs. But he’s been facing tougher competition (finishing second in a $25,000 claimer two starts back) and may be able to snag a rare victory while descending to the $6,250 level. It’s encouraging to note trainer Kevin Rice wins at a 22% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

Let’s keep things simple with a win bet on Youmustbea Weasley.

Selections

• #5 Youmustbea Weasley (5-2)
• #1 Call the Ball (3-1)
• #6 Up for the Chance (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Youmustbea Weasley

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $1,471 Pick 6 carryover (1:58 p.m. ET)

The Pick 6 at Finger Lakes often proves unsolvable. That was the case last Wednesday, when no one selected more than five winners and the $1 wager tossed up for a $1,471 carryover for Monday’s card.

If you wish to play along, but don’t want to invest in expensive tickets, you’re in luck. Monday’s sequence isn’t unmanageable as far as Pick 6s go. The six races have drawn 47 horses (averaging about 7.8 per race), and since two horses are coupled in the betting, there are only 193,536 possible betting outcomes to analyze.

We can reduce that number dramatically (down to 24,193) by singling the coupled entrymates #1 Giant Impact (2-1) and #1A King’s Leap (2-1) in Race 7, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt.

Both halves of the entry look promising. Giant Impact is a first-time starter from the hot barn of Anthony Ferraro, a 28% winner at Finger Lakes this meet. A son of Grade 1-winning sprinter Volatile (who sires 21% winners from first-time starters), Giant Impact has posted several bullet workouts at Finger Lakes and is slated to be ridden by Keiber Coa, the leading jockey at Finger Lakes this year.

But King’s Leap, an experienced Ferraro trainee, might be an even stronger win contender. He started three times during the prestigious Saratoga meet, finishing third, fourth, and third in maiden special weights over distances from 5 1/2 furlongs to one mile. Along the way he earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 68, 63, and 76, with the latter number exceeding the par winning number (74) for Monday’s conditions at Finger Lakes.

The competition is easier at Finger Lakes than Saratoga, so even though King’s Leap is theoretically sticking to the same class level, in all likelihood he’ll be facing a more manageable field. The change in scenery can send King’s Leap to the winner’s circle under hot jockey Luis Perez, a 20% winner teaming up with Ferraro over the last two months.

Good luck!