Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Finger Lakes Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, June 3 at Finger Lakes and Presque Isle Downs, including a horse to single in the $1,267 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win bets every Monday through Wednesday in June.
• Presque Isle Downs 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers at Presque Isle Downs (excluding show bets) on Mondays in June and July.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:44 p.m. ET)

#6 Jaximus (5-1) showed speed when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden special weight for New York-breds on Feb. 3 at Aqueduct, tracking the pace from second place before giving way to finish eighth. Given that Jaximus raced outside over a muddy track that played favorably toward insider runners, he didn’t have the best chance to shine.

Jaximus should find the competition easier at Finger Lakes, where trainer Chris Englehart has won at a 22% rate this meet. Jockey John Davila Jr. has done even better, winning with 24% of his Finger Lakes mounts, and over the past two months Englehart and Davila have won at a 26% rate teaming up together.

Let’s place a win bet on Jaximus.

Selections

• #6 Jaximus (5-1)
• #2 Uncle Kendric (5-2)
• #3 Peanutbuttertoast (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Jaximus

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $25,000 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 4:21 p.m. ET)

#3 Reapply (4-1) ran well in a quartet of starts over the Turfway Park Tapeta track between December and March, finishing third, first, second, and second while earning steadily improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 59, 69, 77, and 78.

That affinity for Tapeta translated to success when Reapply made his Presque Isle debut in a $25,000 claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on May 20. Despite having to wait in traffic, Reapply finished up strongly when he found racing room, getting up to win by half a length with a 75 Brisnet Speed rating.

With an unencumbered trip on Monday, Reapply can bring his Presque Isle record to a perfect 2-for-2. Let’s bet him to win and key him over recent $12,500 claiming winner #2 Certain (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Reapply (4-1)
• #2 Certain (3-1)
• #4 Outhustle (5-2)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #3 Reapply
• $8 Exacta: 3 with 2
  Total: $30

Finger Lakes: Race 8: $5,000 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 4:38 p.m. ET)

Trainer Anthony Ferraro has been on fire at Finger Lakes this meet, going 14-for-38 (37%). This bodes well for #3 Reiner (4-1), who finished first and second in a couple of $11,000 claimers running long at Finger Lakes last year.

Reiner has been struggling in recent starts against $5,000 company at Tampa Bay Downs, coming home sixth, fourth, and eighth. But returning to Finger Lakes off a freshening should make Reiner competitive, especially since Ferraro wins at a 25% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. The fact Reiner worked a bullet half-mile in :47 2/5 on May 22 at Finger Lakes adds to the appeal.

We’ll keep things simple with a win bet.

Selections

• #3 Reiner (4-1)
• #5 Parade Field (7-2)
• #4 Don Bernardo (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Reiner

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $1,267 Pick 6 carryover (2:13 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Finger Lakes kicks off on Monday with a $1,267 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Mathematically speaking, it’s a highly manageable Pick 6 sequence. None of the six races have drawn more than seven horses, and thanks to a pair of coupled entries there are only 38 different betting interests, averaging about 6.3 per race. It works out to a mere 61,740 possible betting outcomes, a very low number for a Pick 6.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Then check out Race 4, an $11,000 claimer for horses who have never won three races. Only seven horses have entered the six-furlong dirt sprint (two of which are coupled in the betting), and it’s going to take a big performance for anyone to defeat #5 East Coast Girl (2-1).

East Coast Girl has a 16.1-point advantage on the Brisnet Prime Power rankings, and it’s easy to understand why. He spent his first eight starts competing against tougher competition at Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Saratoga, and Monmouth Park, even finishing third in a 6 1/2-furlong New York Stallion Series S. at Aqueduct.

Just as importantly, East Coast Girl ran a giant race when making his Finger Lakes debut in a May 14 five-furlong $5,000 claimer for non-winners of two races. Running for the first time since last August, East Coast Girl led all the way and widened his advantage at every call to dominate by 12 1/2 lengths.

That runaway victory yielded an 87 Brisnet Speed rating, which marked the fourth time East Coast Girl has thrown down a number in the 85-91 range. That’s significant because none of the horses he’s facing on Monday have ever posted a number higher than 85, or a number higher than 78 in their last six starts apiece.

Throw in the fact East Coast Girl is picking up hot jockey Joel Cruz (a 21% winner at Finger Lakes this meet), and the stage is set for another easy victory. We’re confident East Coast Girl can win right back as a short-priced Pick 6 single.

Good luck!