Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Finger Lakes Pick 6 play

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, July 15 at Ellis Park and Finger Lakes, including a ticket for the $940 Finger Lakes Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Presque Isle Downs 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers at Presque Isle Downs (excluding show bets) on Mondays in June and July.
• Ellis Park 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Ellis Park every Monday from July 15 through Aug. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:21 p.m. ET)

#3 Murphy Girl (5-2) has finished second in each of her first two starts against maiden special weight company at Churchill Downs, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 88 and 82. In her debut, she was beaten only one length by Vodka With a Twist, who returned to win Churchill’s Debutante S.

The third time can be the charm for Murphy Girl, so let’s bet her to win and play her over morning line favorite #6 Lady Kathryn (2-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #3 Murphy Girl (5-2)
• #6 Lady Kathryn (2-1)
• #1 Minty (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Murphy Girl
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 6
  Total: $25

Finger Lakes: Race 5: New York Oaks (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 2:56 p.m. ET)

#2 Sweet Brown Sugar (8-5) is 5-for-7 lifetime and 3-for-3 at Finger Lakes. All three of her Finger Lakes victories have been achieved in gate-to-wire fashion and by at least 5 1/2 lengths, the margin by which she conquered the Niagara S. last month.

Sweet Brown Sugar has yet to run farther than 6 1/2 furlongs, but there’s no reason to think she can’t handle stretching out in distance against this largely paceless New York Oaks field. Let’s confidently key her over Saratoga stakes winner #6 Caldwell Luvs Gold (9-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #2 Sweet Brown Sugar (8-5)
• #6 Caldwell Luvs Gold (9-5)
• #5 Purpose (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 6

Finger Lakes: Race 7: New York Derby (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 3:54 p.m. ET)

#4 Pandagate (7-5) was tons the best when facing New York-breds in the one-mile Gander S. at Aqueduct during the winter, rallying to defeat future Mike Lee S. winner #1 Doc Sullivan (5-2) by 5 1/2 lengths. And Pandagate subsequently performed well against non-state-restricted company in the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai, finishing third behind next-out Kentucky Derby (G1) third-place finisher Forever Young.

Returning to the New York-bred ranks for the New York Derby should make Pandagate tough to beat for trainer Christophe Clement, a 20% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. Let’s count on a reprise of the Gander outcome and play Pandagate over Doc Sullivan in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Pandagate (8-5)
• #1 Doc Sullivan (5-2)
• #2 Elysian Meadows (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 4 with 1

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $940 Pick 6 carryover (1:58 p.m. ET)

Planning to pursue Monday’s $940 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes? We’re here to help with a race-by-race analysis and a proposed ticket costing less than $100:

Race 3: $11,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt)

#3 Lady Quinn (5-2) kicked off 2024 with a three-length romp in a $5,000 claimer at Finger Lakes and is eligible to win right back for hot trainer M. Anthony Ferraro. But #5 Forty Smooth (4-1), dropping in class for her return from a 13-month layoff, has the Brisnet Speed ratings to challenge.

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt)

#2 Pentangeli (7-2) brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the table, but with seven runner-up finishes from 10 starts, he tends to settle for minor awards. We’ll back him up with the stakes-placed #1A Aeflgar (3-1) and his coupled entrymate #1 Support the Cat (3-1).

Race 5: New York Oaks (1 1/16 miles on dirt)

For reasons outlined earlier, we’re keen to support #2 Sweet Brown Sugar (8-5), a two-time stakes winner at Finger Lakes. We’ll make her the first of two singles on our Pick 6 ticket.

Race 6: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt)

This allowance sprint for fillies and mares features many viable contenders. We’ll cover a lot of bases with #1 Lady Arwen (5-1), #2 J D Advantage (10-1), #5 Love Thyself (20-1), #6 Dorth’s Sol Dancer (5-1), #7 Ghostbustin (3-1), and #8 She’s a Freud (4-1).

Race 7: New York Derby (1 1/16 miles on dirt)

UAE Derby (G2) third-place finisher #4 Pandagate (7-5) is a class standout and the runner to beat if he brings his A-game, so we’ll make him our second Pick 6 single.

Race 8: Allowance (one mile and 70 yards on dirt)

#3 Sky’s Winning Bid (4-1) posted a solid 77 Brisnet Speed rating when wiring a maiden special weight over this track and distance last month by 19 lengths. But rivals like #2 Jayla (5-1), #4 Love My Candy (8-1), and #7 Oh Mrs. Maisel (3-1) own similar numbers and shouldn’t be underestimated.

• $1 Pick 6: 3,5 with 1,2 with 2 with 1,2,5,6,7,8 with 4 with 2,3,4,7 ($96)

Good luck!