Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Labor Day stakes plays

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Sept. 2, at Finger Lakes and Del Mar, along with a ticket for Mountaineer’s $1,099 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Labor Day 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Saratoga, Del Mar, Woodbine, and Monmouth Park on Monday.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:29 p.m. ET)

There aren’t any obvious pacesetters in this field, so we’ll throw our support behind #3 Shiny Lure (7-5), who earned decent Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings of 84 and 90 when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight on May 17 at Aqueduct. She was able to stay within four lengths of the early pace despite brushing the gate at the start.

If Shiny Lure breaks better in her second start, she can cruise to victory for trainer Danny Gargan, a 26% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

#5 Mia Nipotina (5-2), runner-up by a nose over this track and class level on Aug. 19, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Shiny Lure (7-5)
• #5 Mia Nipotina (5-2)
• #4 Playing With Dolls (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 3 with 5

Finger Lakes: Race 6: Arctic Queen S. (six furlongs on dirt, 3:25 p.m. ET)

#7 Gone and Forgotten (3-1) has cracked the trifecta in each of her last four starts while earning strong Brisnet Speed ratings of 86, 83, 89, and 89. Third last time out in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer for New York-breds at Saratoga, Gone and Forgotten figures to shine at Finger Lakes, where the competition is typically easier.

#3 Honest Banker (10-1), the second-fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, has won each of her last two starts at Finger Lakes and can battle with Saratoga shipper #2 Easy Play (8-1) to round out the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Gone and Forgotten (3-1)
• #3 Honest Banker (10-1)
• #2 Easy Play (8-1)

Wagers

• $12 Exacta: 7 with 2,3 ($24)

Del Mar: Race 5: Generous Portion S. (six furlongs on dirt, 6:31 p.m. ET)

#1 In the Air Tonight (7-5) is 2-for-2, having followed up a debut victory at Santa Anita with a 5 1/4-length romp in the CTBA S. at Del Mar. The daughter of Stay Thirsty boasts strong Brisnet Speed ratings and looks capable of chasing down flashy Del Mar debut winner #4 Cayucos (6-5).

Let’s bet the exacta accordingly.

Selections

• #1 In the Air Tonight (7-5)
• #4 Cayucos (6-5)
• #5 Hot Girl Walk (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 4

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer: Race 8: $1,099 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

The highlight of the Labor Day card at Mountaineer is a $1,099 Super High 5 carryover available to chase in the final race of the evening.

That would be race 8, a $4,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. An eight-horse field has turned out, which means there are 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

It’s a tricky race to handicap because there aren’t many encouraging form lines to review. Not a single entrant recorded a top-three finish in their most recent start, and six of them have at one time or another run poorly at the $4,000 maiden claiming level.

That’s why #5 Cassoulet (9-2) is more compelling than most. Sure, she misfired in a $4,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Mountaineer last month, fading from a pacesetting position to finish sixth by 9 1/2 lengths. But her two previous sprint starts over this track and class level produced top-three finishes with decent Brisnet Speed ratings of 57 and 49. On her best day, Cassoulet is capable of competing against this caliber of competition.

The fact Cassoulet regularly shows early speed is also compelling. There isn’t a ton of pace in Monday’s field. If Cassoulet is able to set or press a controlled pace, she’ll have every chance to graduate under jockey Erik Barbaran, a solid 19% winner at Mountaineer this meet.

Who are the other key contenders? We’ll respect #1 Katz Me of Course (5-2), a newcomer to the Mountaineer scene after finishing a pace-tracking fourth in a $4,000 maiden claimer sprinting five furlongs at Fort Erie, an effort that yielded a 53 Brisnet Speed rating.

#2 Snowbird (10-1) is intriguing too. She regularly earns Brisnet Speed ratings in the 41-54 range and finished fifth in a $4,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Mountaineer last month. Another top-five finish is within reach.

#7 Gio’s My Dad (4-1) shouldn’t be underestimated either. While it’s possible she’s better in routes than sprints, eight of her last nine Brisnet Speed ratings have been in the 48-57 range, so Gio’s My Dad consistently runs fast enough to challenge against this caliber of competition. She’s also switching to the barn of trainer Marco Ccamaque, who wins at a 29% rate with horses running for the first time under his care.

We’ll round out our tickets with #8 Test Your Faith (7-2), a runner-up in a $4,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Mountaineer two starts back. She appears to be better running long than short, but Monday’s field looks like an ideal spot to get in the hunt for a top-five finish. Each of Test Your Faith’s last five Brisnet Speed ratings have been in the 50-60 range, so that’s a positive.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,7,8 with 1,2,7,8 with 1,2,7,8 ($18)

Good luck!