Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mahoning’s $14,558 Pick 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Feb. 5 at Mahoning Valley and Turf Paradise, including a ticket for Mahoning’s $14,558 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Earn 10x reward points on all harness racing wagers (excluding show bets) every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday during the month of February.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: $5,000 Claiming (one mile, 2:08 p.m. ET)

#5 Mr Laoban (5-2) has earned sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 77 and 70 in two starts at Mahoning since being transferred to the care of trainer Emily Szczepanski. On Jan. 14, he made a mid-race move before flattening out to finish third in a one-mile $5,000 claimer. On Jan. 18, he carved out most of the pace in a one-mile and 70-yard $5,000 claimer before weakening to finish second.

These efforts stamp Mr Laoban as a good fit for Monday’s conditions, especially since he’s already defeated key rival #2 Grand Gizmo (7-2). Let’s bet Mr Laoban to win and key him over Grand Gizmo in a small exacta.

Selections

• #5 Mr Laoban (5-2)
• #2 Grand Gizmo (7-2)
• #6 Anthony’s Rocket (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Mr Laoban
• $5 Eacta: 5 with 2
  Total: $25

Turf Paradise: Race 2: $4,500 Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs, 3:08 p.m. ET)

#4 Zippin Pippin (1-1) hasn’t missed the exacta in her last six starts, most recently rallying to finish second in a $4,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Mountaineer. That effort yielded a 74 Brisnet Speed rating, far and away the highest last-out number belonging to any of the horses in this $4,500 claimer.

Zippin Pippin should be tough to beat if she runs her typical race under apprentice jockey Matias Bravo (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance), so let’s single Zippin Pippin to start a cold double wager.

Selections

• #4 Zippin Pippin (1-1)
• #5 See You At the Top (6-1)
• #1 Dahlia’s Dancer (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 4 with 5

Turf Paradise: Race 3: $8,500 Claiming (one mile, 3:36 p.m. ET)

#5 Conrad the Red (2-1) has been sharp in two starts since switching to the barn of Juan P. Silva. First, he smashed a one-mile maiden special weight at Mountaineer by 20 1/2 lengths, earning a career-best 89 Brisnet Speed rating. Then he finished second in a $12,500 allowance optional claimer over the same track and distance, earning a respectable 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

Dropping in class for an $8,500 claimer should make Conrad the Red tough to beat under jockey Fausto Da Silva, a 28% winner teaming up with Silva over the last two months. We’ll single Conrad the Red to conclude our double wager and bet him to win for good measure.

Selections

• #5 Conrad the Red (2-1)
• #2 Westerberg (5-2)
• #4 Paid in Full (8-5)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #5 Conrad the Red

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $14,558 Pick 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

The Monday card at Mahoning Valley is kicking off on a high note with a $14,558 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 5.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence and assemble a ticket for $48:

Race 1: $7,500 Claiming (1 1/16 miles)

#6 Barrelhouse (5-2) misfired when sixth in a recent $15,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Mahoning, but he’d previously finished first and second in $5,000 claimers running long. Stretching back out in distance and dropping into a $7,500 claimer should make Barrelhouse formidable, so we’ll take a chance singling him to start the Pick 5.

Race 2: $4,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs)

#1 Reinsure (2-1) has finished second in his last two starts sprinting six furlongs over this track and class level, most recently earning a career-best 84 Brisnet Speed rating. While not exactly a winning machine (he’s 3-for-47 lifetime), Reinsure appears to have found a field he can beat, though the class-dropping duo of #3 Zelig (3-1) and #6 Duel Fuel (5-1) also have the form lines to factor.

Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

This is a challenging contest with a number of possible winners. We’ll spread with #1 Splash of Tonic (5-2), #2 Out Atthe Speedway (7-2), #3 Cowgirl Kimmie (4-1), and #5 Sabelle (5-1).

Race 4: $5,000 Claiming (one mile)

As outlined previously, #5 Mr Laoban (5-2) is a logical favorite. He brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and looks like a reliable single, considering he finished ahead of key rival #2 Grand Gizmo (7-2) by a clear margin last time out.

Race 5: $5,000 Claiming (one mile)

#9 Making Me Crazy (5-2) has the Brisnet Speed ratings to factor while dropping in class out of an $8,000 claimer, but he’s 0-for-6 racing one mile. If stretching out from sprints to a route trips him up, then rivals like #1 Tuff Attack (8-1), #2 Tappin Royalty (6-1), and #6 My Two Aunt Joans (7-2) have upset potential.

• $1 Pick 5: 6 with 1,3,6 with 1,2,3,5 with 5 with 1,2,6,9 ($48)

Good luck!