Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mahoning’s $5,669 Pick 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Jan. 15 at Fair Grounds and Mahoning Valley, including a ticket for Mahoning’s $5,669 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Earn 10x reward points on all harness racing wagers (excluding show bets) every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday during the month of January.
• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races every Thursday-Sunday (also Monday, Jan. 15).
• Bayou & Bluegrass 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park from Nov. 29 through Feb. 4.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 2: $15,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 1:12 p.m. ET)

#8 Ernie’s Martini (2-1) has hit the board in all six of his starts since switching to dirt under the care of trainer Kevin Buttigieg. Five of those starts have come against allowance competition, including a 2 3/4-length victory over a next-out winner in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint at Fort Erie.

Ernie’s Martini owns sharp Brisnet Speed ratings and should be tough to beat while dropping into a $15,000 claimer, especially since Buttigieg wins at a 29% rate with horses starting in a claiming race for the first time. Let’s bet Ernie’s Martini to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #8 Ernie’s Martini (2-1)
• #2 Red Gun (6-1)
• #3 Barrelhouse (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Ernie’s Martini
• $5 Double: 8 with 6
  Total: $25

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 1:40 p.m. ET)

#6 Stealththirtyfour (3-1) has been in hot form at Mountaineer since transferring to the care of trainer Juan Gotera. After finishing second by a nose in a $12,500 claimer, Stealththirtyfour romped in a $6.500 claimer, then ran second by a nose in a $4,000 claimer despite bearing out badly on the turn when his left rein broke.

Assuming there aren’t any equipment malfunctions on Monday, Stealththirtyfour figures to deliver victory in his Mahoning Valley debut. We’ll bet him to win and single him to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #6 Stealththirtyfour (3-1)
• #3 Lake Shore Drive (5-2)
• #5 Silver Matt (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Stealththirtyfour

Fair Grounds: Race 1: $12,500 Claiming (six furlongs, 1:45 p.m. ET)

#4 Drop Dead Sexy (4-1) has finished last by wide margins in each of her last two starts, but there have been extenuating circumstances. One was a non-state-restricted $35,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over five furlongs on turf. The other was a $20,000 allowance optional claimer for Louisiana-breds in which Drop Dead Sexy carved out blazing fractions of :21.33 and :44.92 before understandably tiring.

Now Drop Dead Sexy is dropping in class for a $12,500 claimer restricted to horses bred in Louisiana. There isn’t much speed entered in this six-horse field, so Drop Dead Sexy has every chance to shake loose on an easier lead than last time and take this field all the way on the front end. Don’t forget, three starts back, she set controlled fractions in a $20,000 claimer for Louisiana-breds at Louisiana Downs and won by 1 1/4 lengths.

#2 Country Lady (7-2) can track Drop Dead Sexy all the way around the track to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Drop Dead Sexy (4-1)
• #2 Country Lady (7-2)
• #3 Isolation (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Drop Dead Sexy
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 2
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $5,669 Pick 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

The Monday card at Mahoning Valley is highlighted by a $5,669 non-jackpot carryover in the $1 Pick 5.

Planning to play along, but not sure where to begin? We’ve got you covered with a race-by-race look at the sequence and a proposed ticket in the ~$50 range:

Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

#3 Mutual Confidence (7-2) threw down a flashy 87 Brisnet Speed rating when second over this track, distance, and class level on Dec. 14. He’s cracked the trifecta in six straight starts and is surely the runner to beat, though #5 Haddassah’s Devil (6-1) and #7 Quick Entry (8-1) are logical alternatives if Mutual Confidence runs below his best.

Race 2: $15,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

We’ve already made our case for #8 Ernie’s Martini (2-1) as the horse to beat while dropping in class out of allowance races, so we’ll make the logical favorite a Pick 5 single.

Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs)

#6 Stealththirtyfour (3-1) is our top choice for reasons outlined above. Bettors with large budgets might want to use #3 Lake Shore Drive (5-2) as backup; the Woodbine raider has never run on dirt, but has the pedigree to handle the surface switch for trainer Elliot Sullivan, a 29% winner at Mahoning Valley this meet. However, to keep our Pick 5 in the ~$50 range, we’ll take a stand with Stealththirtyfour.

Race 4: $4,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

#8 La Reina Del Norte (4-1) is a logical contender after finishing second over this track and class level on Dec. 30. #7 Tidal Waters (7-2), dropping in class after finishing fourth in a $6,250 claimer on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs, can’t be dismissed either. We’ll also include live longshot #2 Indy Princess Koko (8-1), who produced a series of competitive runs against allowance competition at Mahoning last year. She’s picking up hot jockey Luis Rivera for her return to Mahoning and has a shot to exceed expectations.

Race 5: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

A competitive contest rounds out the Pick 5. We’ll spread deep with #1 Two Guns (4-1), #3 Royal Mahogany (5-1), #4 Kosciuszko (8-1), #5 One More Ring (9-2), #6 Perfect Wager (6-1), and #9 Gilligan (10-1).

• $1 Pick 5: 3,5,7 with 8 with 6 with 2,7,8 with 1,3,4,5,6,9 ($54)

Good luck!