Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mahoning’s $8,099 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Dec. 9 at Zia Park and Turf Paradise, along with a single for the $8,099 Pick 5 carryover at Mahoning Valley.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January, excluding Dec. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $12,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:12 p.m. ET)

Trainer Jose Silva Jr. has compiled a stellar 11-for-26 (42%) record at Turf Paradise this meet. That’s why we’re willing to bet Silva’s #5 Aventapp (5-2) can shine in his Turf Paradise debut.

So far, Aventapp has competed exclusively on the Southern California circuit, and 24 of his 25 starts have come on turf. But his lone dirt run wasn’t bad—he finished third (upgraded to second via disqualification) in a $50,000 starter allowance sprint at Del Mar last year.

Aventapp was last seen charging hard to finish second in a $32,000 claimer sprinting five furlongs over the Del Mar grass. Aventapp was claimed out of that contest by Silva, and it’s important to note Silva wins at a strong 25% rate with new claiming acquisitions.

For all these reasons, a large win bet on Aventapp is in order.

Selections

• #5 Aventapp (5-2)
• #1 Emerald Sea (5-1)
• #6 Getaway Day (9-2)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #5 Aventapp

Zia Park: Race 8: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:21 p.m. ET)

#6 All That Glory (6-1) has shown ability against tougher competition on the Southern California circuit, even placing second by a neck in the Desert Code S.

All That Glory recently made his Zia Park debut in a six-furlong allowance, which he won by 1 3/4 lengths with a sharp 93 Brisnet Speed rating. He has every chance to win right back for hot trainer Dallas Barton, who has gone 4-for-13 (31%) at Zia Park this meet.

#1 Competitive Idea (3-1) and #4 Dean’s List (8-5) can battle to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #6 All That Glory (6-1)
• #1 Competitive Idea (3-1)
• #4 Dean’s List (8-5)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #6 All That Glory
• $4 Exacta: 6 with 1,4 ($8)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 8: $4,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 6:12 p.m. ET)

#4 Octane (7-2) is dropping down sharply in class and distance after failing to crack the trifecta in a series of turf routes.

The surface change may suit this Silva trainee just fine. Her lone dirt start to date yielded a fourth-place finish in a $35,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Turf Paradise last spring. This is an easier spot, which should allow Octane to vie for victory. It helps that Silva wins at a powerful 43% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Octane (7-2)
• #1 Capital Heat (5-2)
• #3 Square Fun (20-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Octane

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $8,099 Pick 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

Mahoning Valley is starting the new week on a high note with an $8,099 non-jackpot carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 5.

In the event no one assembles a winning ticket, 50% of the pool carries over to the next racing day while 50% is paid out as consolation to bettors who select the highest number of winners. Last Thursday, when the $8,099 carryover was generated, tickets with four out of five winners returned $121.70 apiece.

The opening leg of Monday’s Pick 5 sequence is Race 1, a $7,500 maiden claimer taking place over one mile on dirt. Only seven horses have entered, and we recommend using morning-line favorite #3 Midnitestateofmind (2-1) as a Pick 5 single.

Midnitestateofmind has been competing against Indiana-bred rivals at Horseshoe Indianapolis. He failed to finish better than third in his first five starts against maiden special weight competition, but he’s been more competitive since dropping down to the $15,000 maiden claiming level.

On Aug. 5, Midnitestateofmind dueled for the lead in a $15,000 maiden claimer over one mile and 70 yards before succumbing in the final furlong to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths. Then on Aug. 26 over the same class level, the three-year-old gelding closed from as many as 2 1/2 lengths off the pace to finish second by half a length, earning a career-best 68 Brisnet Speed rating.

That 68 is the highest number recently posted by any of the horses entered in Race 1.  Midnitestateofmind hasn’t run since, but he’s turned in quick workouts in preparation for his return (including a bullet half-mile in :48), so the 3 1/2-month layoff shouldn’t be an issue.

Cementing Midnitestateofmind as a compelling choice is the fact he’ll be ridden by Samuel Bermudez, a 26% winner teaming up with trainer Aaron West over the last two months. If Midnitestateofmind brings his A game and delivers victory as a Pick 5 single, you’ll be well on your way to cashing a winning ticket.

Good luck!