Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Presidents' Day Plays

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Feb. 17 at Fair Grounds, Santa Anita, and Oaklawn Park, including a suggested single for the $2,822 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 5x rewards points on all bets at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Monday through Wednesday from Feb. 17 through March 26.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Fair Grounds/Oaklawn Feeder to 2/22 Rebel KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 1: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 1:45 p.m. ET)

In January 2024, #4 Skip the Line (4-5) finished second twice in tough maiden special weights at Gulfstream Park. But in his return from an 11-month layoff at Fair Grounds last month, he finished a distant fifth in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight, beaten 16 lengths. It’s unclear if dropping in class will be sufficient to trigger a turnaround.

Let’s try to beat Skip the Line with #6 Brilliant Call (5-2). He’s finished fourth in his last two starts running long at Fair Grounds. One was a maiden special weight, and the other was a $30,000 maiden claimer. He has every chance to vie for victory at the $12,500 level.

Selections

• #6 Brilliant Call (5-2)
• #4 Skip the Line (4-5)
• #2 Puckster (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Brilliant Call
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 4
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 1: $80,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 3:30 p.m. ET)

#3 Tariff (7-2) has finished fourth, sixth, sixth, and eighth in his first four starts against maiden special weight competition on turf. In a one-mile contest at Del Mar two starts back, he closed ground to finish only 2 3/4 lengths behind the winner.

Now Tariff is dropping in class, adding blinkers, and racing on Lasix for the first time. First-time blinkers is a 30% winning move for trainer Peter Eurton.

Under red-hot jockey Flavien Prat (a 29% winner at Santa Anita this meet), Tariff is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #3 Tariff (7-2)
• #2 Smiling Tizzy (5-2)
• #1 Spun Not Stirred (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Tariff

Oaklawn Park: Race 9: Ozark S. (six furlongs on dirt, 5:51 p.m. ET)

#1 Waco (8-1) has come to hand nicely in recent starts at Oaklawn for hot trainer D. Wayne Lukas. On Jan. 4, he nabbed a $50,000 maiden claimer by a neck over a next-out winner. On Jan. 26, he won a $60,000 starter optional claimer by 1 1/4 lengths.

Waco is improving his Brisnet Speed ratings, and one more step forward can place him in the hunt for victory at a nice price. We’ll try a win bet on this Triple Crown nominee.

Selections

• #1 Waco (8-1)
• #6 Wildncrazynight (6-1)
• #9 Innova (9-5)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #1 Waco

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $2,822 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

Since Monday is Presidents' Day, Fair Grounds is hosting a special Monday card highlighted by a $2,822 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

A tricky sequence is on the agenda. Even after you exclude five also-eligible entrants from consideration, the Pick 6 contains 60 horses (averaging 10 per race) and 870,912 possible outcomes. Assembling a winning ticket won’t be easy.

Finding a trustworthy single will simplify the ticket assembly process, but singles aren’t always easy to come by. The most reliable choice on Monday might be #1 Yockey’s Drivethru (7-2) in Race 9, a $20,000 allowance optional claimer for older Louisiana-breds dashing six furlongs on dirt.

Yockey’s Drivethru isn’t the morning-line favorite. That honor has fallen on #4 Benji Star (9-5), who smashed a six-furlong dirt allowance at Fair Grounds last month by 12 3/4 lengths, earning a strong 97 Brisnet Speed rating. In contrast, Yockey’s Drivethru has never earned a number higher than 81.

But Benji Star has struggled with consistency. He’s 2-for-2 over sloppy tracks, posting blowout wins and big Brisnet Speed ratings. But he’s 0-for-4 on fast tracks, and one of those defeats came in a six-furlong Fair Grounds allowance in which he finished five lengths behind Yockey’s Drivethru.

Since a fast track is expected on Monday, we believe Yockey’s Drivethru will have an advantage. The five-year-old gelding hasn’t missed the exacta in his last seven starts, including three recent efforts sprinting six furlongs over the Fair Grounds dirt. Two starts back, he won an allowance by 2 1/2 lengths. Last time out, he rallied through some traffic trouble to finish second in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer.

Pick 6 bettors with large budgets might wish to use Yockey’s Drivethru and Benji Star in equal strength. But if you need the cost savings of a single, the expectation of a fast track makes Yockey’s Drivethru our best recommendation.

For good measure, consider placing a $20 win bet on Yockey’s Drivethru. If you’re participating in Monday’s $200 Fair Grounds/Oaklawn Feeder to 2/22 Rebel KDBC Qualifier tournament on TwinSpires, cashing a $20 win bet at 7-2 odds should help you climb the standings.

Good luck!