Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Presque Isle Pick 5 carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, July 1 at Thistledown and Hastings Racecourse, along with a horse to single in a pair of Pick 5 carryovers at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Presque Isle Downs 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers at Presque Isle Downs (excluding show bets) on Mondays in June and July.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Thistledown: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 1:50 p.m. ET)

Since 2019, trainer Tim Hamm has compiled an 8-for-39 (21%) record debuting juveniles at Thistledown. He’s in the midst of a strong Thistledown meet this year, going 17-for-57 (30%) so far, and #2 Parlay (7-2) can keep that momentum going.

An unraced two-year-old filly, Parlay has put together an encouraging work tab capped off by a bullet five furlongs from the Thistledown starting gate in 1:02 3/5. Jockey Rocco Bowen (a 20% winner this meet and a 27% winner teaming up with Hamm over the last two months) is named to ride, so the stage appears set for Parlay to shine on debut.

At 7-2, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Parlay (7-2)
• #3 Ebony’s Secret (3-1)
• #7 Coloryoureggs (8-5)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Parlay

Thistledown: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:20 p.m. ET)

The experienced runners in this field of Ohio-bred fillies and mares don’t appear overly formidable. #4 Canela Fina (2-1) is a logical favorite after cracking the trifecta seven times, including in a stakes, but her 0-for-15 lifetime tally is a cause for pause and she exits a distant fifth-place finish over this track and class level to kick off 2024.

That’s why we’re going to think outside the box with longshot #8 The Little Things (12-1). She faded after tracking the pace to finish fourth in her debut sprinting six furlongs over this track and class level on May 27. But now she’s adding Lasix and blinkers for trainer Deborah Keiser, a 33% winner with second-time starters, so there are reasons to believe The Little Things can improve under hot jockey Chelsey Keiser.

Selections

• #8 The Little Things (12-1)
• #4 Canela Fina (2-1)
• #1 Ralph’s Lil’ Vicky (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 The Little Things

Hastings Racecourse: Race 5: Monashee H. (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 7:30 p.m. ET)

#5 Infinite Patience (5-2) has finished fourth in both of her starts this year, but those were 6 1/2-furlong sprints. She’s better running long and boasts a 7-for-8 tally over 1 1/16 miles. She won four stakes (including three at Hastings) racing one mile or farther in 2023 and has won 17 stakes during her decorated career.

Stretching back out in distance should help Infinite Patience bounce back to the winner’s circle. Let’s key her over #1 Air Force (2-1) and #2 We B Three (9-5) in the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #5 Infinite Patience (5-2)
• #1 Air Force (2-1)
• #2 We B Three (9-5)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 1,2 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 5 with 1,2 with 1,2 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $1,733 Pick 6 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)
Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $1,513 Pick 6 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

Last Wednesday, both of the 50-cent Pick 5 wagers offered at Presque Isle Downs went unsolved. That means Monday’s 50-cent Early Pick 5 boasts a $1,733 carryover and the 50-cent Late Pick 5 comes with a $1,513 prize pool.

The two sequences overlap in Races 4 and 5. It’s critical to select both winners; miss one or both, and you won’t hit either Pick 5.

Race 4 is a $6,250 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The six-furlong Tapeta sprint drew eight entries and features a formidable favorite in #6 Mr. Bones (5-2). The four-year-old gelding won his debut in a maiden special weight over this track and distance in October 2023, and he recently returned to Presque Isle to finish sixth in a $25,000 claimer and fourth in a $12,500 claimer.

Hot trainer Kevin Rice (a 22% winner at Presque Isle this meet) wins at a 24% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so tackling a $6,250 claimer should make Mr. Bones tough to beat. We’re willing to single him in both Pick 5 wagers.

Race 5 looks tougher to decipher. It’s a $5,000 claimer for horses who haven’t won two races in 2023-24 or one race since July 1, 2023. The one-mile and 70-yard Tapeta contest is led by #5 Heirloom Kitten (9-5), an eight-year-old gelding conditioned by Tim Girten, a 28% winner at Presque Isle this meet. Heirloom Kitten has run well against tougher competition in the past, but his form was slipping throughout 2023, and he ended the year with a seventh-place finish in a $5,000 claimer. He’s worth including on Pick 5 tickets, but he doesn’t appear unbeatable in his 2024 debut.

We’ll use two others as backup. #7 Ault (7-2) and #8 Digital Footprint (4-1) have run well multiple times in $5,000 claimers at Presque Isle. They finished in a dead-heat for second place in a one-mile and 70-yard race last October, and over the same distance on June 12 they finished together again, with Digital Footprint edging his rival for second place by a nose. If Heirloom Kitten falters, either Ault or Digital Footprint can pick up the pieces.

Good luck!