Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Realer can spring a surprise

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Sept. 30 at Presque Isle Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including win plays on a trio of non-favored horses.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $12,500 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3 p.m. ET)

#4 Dreamful (3-1) has been running long as of late, but last year at Presque Isle she hit the board in a pair of 6 1/2-furlong sprints. One was an allowance and the other was a $32,000 allowance optional claimer; in both, Dreamful posted sharp 77 Brisnet Speed ratings.

If Dreamful can recapture that fine form while dropping down in class and distance, she can spring a surprise against proven $12,500 claimer #1 Verbal Geyser (8-5), who has done her best work running one mile or farther.

Selections

• #4 Dreamful (3-1)
• #3 Easy Seven (5-2)
• #1 Verbal Geyser (8-5)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Dreamful

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#5 Watcher (4-5) is the heavy morning-line favorite, but is she unbeatable? Not necessarily. She’s lost a trio of starts over this class level at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and her career-best 72 Brisnet Speed rating is modest.

In contrast, #2 Realer (9-2) earned a 69 Brisnet Speed rating when winning a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis earlier this month. The three-year-old daughter of Mohaymen still has upside while making only her second start for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Alberto Burgos and Randy Klopp, who have won at a 33% rate teaming up together over the last two months.

Let’s count on Realer to spring a surprise.

Selections

• #2 Realer (9-2)
• #5 Watcher (4-5)
• #7 Just Hangin On (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Realer
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 5
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 5:16 p.m. ET)

#8 Lookout Kid (3-1) ran well when debuting in a 7 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course, rallying in spite of traffic to finish second by two lengths. His pedigree suggests he’ll shine while switching to dirt for high-percentage trainer John Langemeier, a 26% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 Lookout Kid (3-1)
• #4 El Jovero (9-5)
• #3 Nine Questions (8-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #8 Lookout Kid

Good luck!