Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Single for $14,871 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, May 6 at Finger Lakes, along with a horse to single in the $14,871 Pick 5 carryover at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Horseshoe Indianapolis $2,500 Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets on Monday at Horseshoe Indianapolis to earn points and compete for your share of $2,500 in prizes.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $20,000 Optional Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs, 2:13 p.m. ET)

Speed is deadly sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs at Finger Lakes. In 2023, pacesetters won 73% of these abbreviated dashes. And during the first two cards of 2024, which were comprised exclusively of 4 1/2-furlong sprints, pacesetters went 8-for-16 (50%).

That’s why we’re backing #1 Lady’s Golden Guy (2-1) in this optional claimer. He hasn’t run this year, but that’s okay; hot trainer Debra Breed (2-for-5 to start the Finger Lakes meet) wins at a 23% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and Lady’s Golden Guy wired a 4 1/2-furlong allowance at Finger Lakes when returning from a long layoff in April 2023.

We’ll count on Lady’s Golden Guy to start 2024 on the same note, betting him to win and singling him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Lady’s Golden Guy (2-1)
• #4 Flying Emperor (8-5)
• #3 Tra Lad (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Lady’s Golden Guy (2-1)
• $5 Double: 1 with 2
  Total: $25

Finger Lakes: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 2:42 p.m. ET)

Keeping with our theme of betting speed horses in 4 1/2-furlong sprints, we’ll back #2 Find Your Joy (2-1), who has set the pace in two of her last three starts on the New York Racing Association circuit. Two starts back, she carved out the pace in a 6 1/2-furlong $40,000 maiden claimer against New York-breds at Aqueduct before staying on to finish second with a 75 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of the other experienced runners in Race 4 have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 64, and since 75 matches the par winning number for Race 4’s conditions, shipping to Finger Lakes should make Find Your Joy tough to beat. A win bet is in order, and we’ll single her to conclude our double bet.

Selections

• #2 Find Your Joy (2-1)
• #1 She She’s Shadow (5-2)
• #3 World Bank (4-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #2 Find Your Joy

Finger Lakes: Race 5: Allowance (4 1/2 furlongs, 3:11 p.m. ET)

#5 Dorth’s Sol Dancer (5-2) was much the best in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Finger Lakes last fall, leading all the way to win by nine lengths. Two subsequent starts against $32,000 claiming competition at Aqueduct yielded respectable third-place finishes.

Returning to Finger Lakes should set the stage for Dorth’s Sol Dancer to revisit the winner’s circle for trainer Anthony Farrior, a 25% winner to start this Finger Lakes meet. Let’s play her over #1 A Thousand Plans (7-2) and #3 Mybronxbaby (2-1) in exacta and trifecta tickets.

Selections

• #5 Dorth’s Sol Dancer (5-2)
• #3 Mybronxbaby (2-1)
• #1 A Thousand Plans (7-2)

Wagers

• $12 Exacta: 5 with 1,3 ($24)
• $3 Trifecta: 5 with 1,3 with 1,3 ($6)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $14,871 Pick 5 carryover (3:43 p.m. ET)

Horseshoe Indianapolis is celebrating the new week with a non-jackpot $14,871 carryover up for grabs in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

A tricky sequence awaits bettors. Before scratches, the five races contain 56 horses (averaging 11.2 per race), which works out to 154,154 possible Pick 5 outcomes.

Bettors looking for a single to build tickets around are advised to check out Race 4, the opening leg of the Pick 5. It’s drawn only seven horses, making it the only race in the Pick 5 sequence with fewer than 11 entries.

Race 4 is an allowance for Indiana-bred fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. There aren’t any other conditions; so long as you’re an Indiana-bred filly or mare, you’re welcome to compete, regardless of how many races you’ve won in the past.

As a result, #7 Carimba (5-2) has turned up in the entries, which is bad news for her rivals because Carimba is a serious racehorse. She’s 7-for-12 lifetime and has cracked the trifecta four times against stakes company, most notably winning the Pan Zareta S. sprinting about 5 1/2 furlongs over the Fair Grounds turf course last fall.

Carimba is quite accomplished on turf, but she’s also placed in multiple stakes on dirt, including the Nelson J. Menard Memorial S. at Fair Grounds back in January. Over the Horseshoe Indianapolis main track, she’s wired an April 2023 allowance by 4 1/2 lengths, finished second in the July 2023 Checkered Flag H., and employed dueling tactics to win a 5 1/2-furlong handicap just last month. All three of those efforts came against fellow Indiana-breds.

Carimba has excellent early speed, and since she’s gotten a recent victory under her belt, she may hold a fitness advantage over morning line favorite #5 Sand and Sea (9-5), a route racer who hasn’t run since January. Sand and Sea hasn’t cracked the trifecta in three starts sprinting six furlongs, and trainer Riley Mott wins only 5% of the time with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so Sand and Sea may prove vulnerable while cutting back in distance for her return.

Throw in the fact Carimba will be ridden by hot jockey Marcelino Pedroza Jr. (a 22% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet), and she’s a viable single to start the Pick 5.

Good luck!