Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Stakes-packed Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Sept. 23 at Finger Lakes and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including horses to play in the $1,984 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on single-horse win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any of the four final races each race day at Assiniboia Downs from Sept. 9-24.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 3: Lady Finger S. (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:58 p.m. ET)

Three contenders stand out in this stakes for New York-bred juvenile fillies. #2 Stone Smuggler (5-2) debuted with a runner-up finish in a six-furlong maiden special weight for New York-breds at Saratoga last month. She finished 2 1/2 lengths ahead of stretch-running #6 Princess Mischief (7-2).

Meanwhile, #5 Idyll Gossip (2-1) exits a gate-to-wire victory in a five-furlong non-state-restricted maiden special weight at Finger Lakes. That effort yielded a 76 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in the Lady Finger field.

Let’s play Stone Smuggler and Idyll Gossip on top in the trifecta while adding Princess Mischief underneath:

Selections

• #2 Stone Smuggler (5-2)
• #5 Idyll Gossip (2-1)
• #6 Princess Mischief (7-2)

Wagers

• $10 Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 6 ($20)
• $10 Trifecta: 2 with 6 with 5
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#6 Orange Diablo (8-5) misfired when last seen in a Feb. 16 maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park, finishing a distant sixth. But he disappeared from the work tab after that and didn’t return to serious training until July, so perhaps something went wrong at Oaklawn.

Orange Diablo had previously cracked the trifecta in three straight maiden special weights at Churchill Downs and Oaklawn, even winning one by 4 1/2 lengths before getting disqualified to second place for interference. He owns the two highest Brisnet Speed ratings in Monday’s field and should be tough to beat for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox.

Let’s bet Orange Diablo to win and key him over #4 Sweet as Sin (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Orange Diablo (8-5)
• #4 Sweet as Sin (5-2)
• #1 Austin’s Map (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Orange Diablo
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 4
  Total: $30

Finger Lakes: Race 7: Aspirant S. (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:54 p.m. ET)

Trainer Wesley Ward has saddled two winners and a runner-up from three starters at Finger Lakes since 2020. This bodes well for Ward’s #4 Bostontonian (5-2), who won his debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs three months ago.

We would view Bostontonian as the horse to beat if not for the presence of #8 Soontobeking (9-5), who looks like an even stronger contender. A maiden special weight winner during the spring at Aqueduct, Soontobeking exits a runner-up finish in the Funny Cide S. at Saratoga, in which he lost by a nose to Sanford (G3) winner Mo Plex.

Let’s key Soontobeking over Bostontonian in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #8 Soontobeking (9-5)
• #4 Bostontonian (5-2)
• #2 Mr. Sugar Daddy (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 8 with 4

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $1,984 Pick 6 carryover (1:58 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Finger Lakes kicks off on a high note with a $1,984 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

The sequence includes three stakes, two of which we’ve already handicapped. The Pick 6 opens with the Lady Finger S., and we recommend bettors use #2 Stone Smuggler (5-2) and #5 Idyll Gossip (2-1) on their tickets. We’ll take a stand against #6 Princess Mischief (7-2) for Pick 6 purposes; while we respect her chances of finishing second or third, turning the tables on Stone Smuggler and visiting the winner’s circle could be tricky.

The penultimate leg of the Pick 6 is the Aspirant S. #8 Soontobeking (9-5) is the horse to beat and a viable single for bettors playing on small budgets, though players with more capital to spend can consider using Wesley Ward’s #4 Bostontonian (5-2) as backup.

Regardless of budget, a trustworthy single can be found in race 8, the final leg of the Pick 6. It’s the Leon Reed Memorial S. for New York-breds dashing six furlongs on dirt, and #5 Looms Boldly (9-5) is a formidable favorite.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Looms Boldly is a standout. He’s the only horse who has recently posted a triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating, and he’s done so in each of his last two starts. On June 8, he set the pace in a $62,500 allowance optional claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga before battling on to finish second by a head, earning a 101 Brisnet Speed rating.

Then on Aug. 8, Looms Boldly led from start to finish to take the six-furlong John Morrissey H. against New York-breds at Saratoga, winning by 3 1/4 lengths with a 100 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Brad Cox has gone 2-for-2 at Finger Lakes in recent years, and jockey Florent Geroux (who has ridden Looms Boldly in his last two starts) is making the trip to retain the mount, so all signs suggest Looms Boldly is sitting on another victory.

Good luck!