Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Stakes plays at Mahoning, Zia Park

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Nov. 25 at Mahoning Valley and Zia Park, along with a single for the $4,749 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 6: First Lady S. (six furlongs on dirt, 2:25 p.m. ET)

#6 Practicallyelusive (8-5) has won five straight races, including a quartet of six-furlong dirt sprints. Along the way she’s earned strong Brisnet Speed ratings of 93 and 95.

None of Practicallyelusive’s First Lady rivals have earned Brisnet Speed ratings that high, so let’s bet her on top of #9 City Scene (2-1)—the second-fastest entrant on paper—in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #6 Practicallyelusive (8-5)
• #9 City Scene (2-1)
• #8 Silent Rule (15-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 6 with 9

Zia Park: Race 6: New Mexico Classic Sprint S. (six furlongs on dirt, 4:25 p.m. ET)

#6 Let Him Be (1-2) boasts a near-perfect 9-for-11 career record. He regularly throws down strong Brisnet Speed ratings in the 80-93 range and enters off a 6 1/4-length win in a six-furlong allowance at Zia Park.

Let Him Be is the fastest horse in the New Mexico Classic Sprint field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, so let’s single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #6 Let Him Be (1-2)
• #8 Antonios Mark (6-1)
• #5 Delbert Too (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 6 with 9

Zia Park: Race 7: New Mexico Classic Juvenile S. (six furlongs on dirt, 4:53 p.m. ET)

#9 Holy Hank (7-5) has won three of his four starts, including the New Mexico State Fair Thoroughbred Futurity by 2 3/4 lengths. He’s already defeated many of the horses he’ll face in the New Mexico Classic Juvenile and should be tough to beat for trainer Simon Buechier, who wins at a 20% rate in ungraded stakes.

Let’s single Holy Hank to conclude our double wager, then bet him over #10 Holdwhatyougot (6-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #9 Holy Hank (7-5)
• #10 Holdwhatyougot (6-1)
• #1 B Bold Charlie (12-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 9 with 10

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $4,749 Pick 6 carryover (1:06 p.m. ET)

Another week, another carryover in the $1 Pick 6 at Finger Lakes. Monday’s prize pool stands at $4,749, a nice pot to kick off the new racing week.

The Pick 6 sequence looks medium-level difficult on paper. The six races have drawn a total of 53 horses (averaging about 8.8 per race) before scratches, which works out to 412,776 possible outcomes.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? We have a recommendation in Race 4, a $5,000 claimer for horses who haven’t won a race since Jan. 1 or who have never won four races. #9 Leo and Royal (8-5) fits into the former category, but even though he’s 0-for-5 this season, he’s hands-down the horse to beat in this one-mile and 70-yard dirt route.

Leo and Royal boasts a 4-for-11 record at Finger Lakes and a 3-for-7 record racing one mile and 70 yards. He tackled this distance in an $11,000 claimer at Finger Lakes last time out and finished fourth in an eight-horse field, earning an 80 Brisnet Speed rating. That marked the fifth time in his last 10 starts that Leo and Royal has cracked the 80 plateau.

That’s significant because none of the eight rivals Leo and Royal will face on Monday have posted a Brisnet Speed rating as high as 80 in their last 10 starts apiece. If Leo and Royal brings his A game while dropping down to the $5,000 level—and there’s no reason to believe he won’t—he’ll be mighty tough to beat.

Cementing Leo and Royal as a formidable favorite are prominent jockey and trainer stats. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart (a 20% winner at Finger Lakes this meet) strikes at a 26% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder. Meanwhile, jockey Andrew Worrie wins at a 21% rate in route races and has gone 6-for-25 (24%) teaming up with Englehart over the last two months.

What’s not to like? Leo and Royal is a compelling Pick 6 single.

Good luck!