Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Trio of Ellis win plays

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Aug. 5 at Ellis Park and Louisiana Downs, including horses to play in a pair of Super High 5 carryovers.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Ellis Park 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Ellis Park every Monday from July 15 through Aug. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 5: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:54 p.m. ET)

#1 Hedge (3-1) showed pace-tracking speed when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He weakened down the homestretch, finishing fifth but was only beaten 4 1/4 lengths while earning a respectable 68 Brisnet Speed rating.

Dropping in class at Ellis Park could send Hedge to the winner’s circle. His early speed figures to be advantageous from the rail draw, so let’s bet this two-year-old gelding to win.

Selections

• #1 Hedge (3-1)
• #6 Abbi Fede (5-1)
• #2 Baytown Guvnah (15-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Hedge

Ellis Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:26 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Brad Cox has gone 6-for-18 (33%) debuting juveniles in turf routes at Ellis Park. So let’s throw our support behind Cox’s unraced two-year-old #4 American Vision (5-1) in this two-turn grass route.

A son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who has a reputation for siring classy turf runners, American Vision has turned in decent work times in preparation for his debut and has the pedigree to thrive over 1 1/16 miles. At 5-1, he’s worth a win play.

Selections

• #4 American Vision (5-1)
• #5 Giocoso (3-1)
• #12 Courageous Clay (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 American Vision

Ellis Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:52 p.m. ET)

Two-year-old #6 Correlation (10-1) looks ready to spring a double-digit surprise on debut. A son of juvenile Grade 1 winner Complexity, who is siring 33% winners from first-time starters, the chestnut gelding is a half brother to Tizsfranderella, a debut winner who won the La Senorita S. at age two.

Correlation has posted a trio of bullet workouts in recent weeks, including half a mile from the starting gate in :47 2/5 and five furlongs from the gate in 1:00 4/5. We’ll complete our trio of $25 win bets with a play on Correlation.

Selections

• #6 Correlation (10-1)
• #1 Tuxedo Park (10-1)
• #3 Sexagenarian (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Correlation

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 2: $1,857 Super High 5 carryover (1:20 p.m. ET)

If you wish to win a share of Monday’s $1,857 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis Park, you’ll have to select the top five finishers in Race 2, a $16,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt.

Mathematically speaking, it’s not the most difficult task. The race drew seven entries, which means there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze. But it’s difficult to separate the main contenders, as they have similar Brisnet Speed ratings.

Fortunately, there’s a lot to like about the slight morning-line favorite #6 Streets of Paris (2-1). The three-year-old filly is dropping in class out of $50,000 and $40,000 maiden claimers sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs. She showed tactical speed while finishing seventh and fourth in those contests and was claimed out of the latter by Matt Shirer, a 27% winner at Ellis Park this meet.

Shirer wins at a powerful 32% rate with horses dropping in class following a claim, so descending to the $16,000 level should put Streets of Paris in the hunt for victory. 

Stretching out in distance may also help, since there isn’t a ton of speed in this field, and Streets of Paris may find herself setting or pressing a modest pace. We recommend counting on her to finish first or second in the Super High 5.

Louisiana Downs: Race 7: $2,107 Super High 5 carryover (7:35 p.m. ET)

There’s also a Super High 5 carryover at Louisiana Downs. It’s worth $2,107 and is available to chase in race 7, a $5,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The distance is five furlongs on dirt.

The fastest of the eight entrants from a Brisnet Speed rating is #1 Trabr’s Creed (7-2), and we view him as the most likely winner. 

He threw down a field-best 77 Brisnet Speed rating when dominating a five-furlong $8,000 maiden claimer at Louisiana Downs last time out. He led all the way to win by 9 1/2 lengths.

Trabr’s Creed has since breezed a bullet half-mile in :48 and looks ready to win right back for red-hot trainer Kevin Martin, a 43% winner at Louisiana Downs this meet. We suggest keying Trabr’s Creed on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!